The IPCC (United
Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has no
geologists among the hundreds of authors of its last major
report (2013-14) and at most 1 geologist in the next report
(due 2022; see my Technical Note 2019-10).
Thus IPCC focuses
on only the last 150 years (since thermometer records began,
~1850), yet Earth is 30 million (sic) times older, 4.5
Geologists know that Earth has warmed and
cooled throughout this time.
Climate change is perfectly
The IPCC's very
existence relies on public belief in man-made - or
'anthropogenic' global warming (AGW) by carbon dioxide (CO2)
IPCC authors, mostly government and university
researchers, are biased by strong vested interests in AGW
(publications; continuance of salaries; research grants...)
Similarly, universities have sacrificed their impartiality
by hosting institutes mandated to confirm and act on AGW,
Grantham Institute (Imperial College),
The claimed '97%
consensus among scientists' that AGW exists is a deception.
It refers in fact to polls of recent publications by
'climate scientists', i.e. atmospheric scientists, lacking
deep-time perspective (Bullet 1), whose numbers
opportunistically exploded in the post-1990 AGW boom,
creating a strong incentive for bias (Bullet 2).
person 'denies' global warming:
'Global-warming denier' and 'Climate-change skeptic'
are deceitful terms for man-made-global-warming doubters and
deniers (most of the world's scientists?).
CO2 is a
But, as CO2 rises, its theoretical
heat-trapping ability sharply declines, already 67% 'used
up' at 100 parts per million (ppm) CO2, 84% at 300 ppm (NB
275 ppm when industrial CO2 output began; Bullet 8), 87% at
400 ppm (today 415 ppm) and >99% at 1000 ppm.
Climate Sensitivity (CS), the warming due to doubling CO2,
IPCC 'estimates' CS from climate models
(circular reasoning) as probably between 1.5 and 4.5 (300%
contrast!), but models are defective (Bullet 6).
CS might be very near zero, perhaps explaining why up to
7,000 ppm in Phanerozoic time (Bullet 7) did not cause
(by climate scientists; Bullet 3) are so full of assumptions
as to be useless or highly misleading, e.g. forecast
1995-2015 warming turned out to be 2 to 3 times too high.
Bullet 19 gives another drastic failure.
Even Wiki (2019)
Models dismiss the sun's fluctuations and omit the
multi-decade delay between these and resulting warming or
This time-lag, due to ocean thermal inertia
(mixing-time), is grossly underestimated by IPCC (Bullets
For ~75% of the
last 550 million years, CO2 was 2 to 15 times
now. Evolution flourished, with CO2 enabling plant
photosynthesis, the basis of all life.
Extinction events due
to overheating by CO2 are unknown.
Through the last
12,000 years, our current 'Holocene' interglacial epoch, CO2
was a mere 250-290 ppm (compare plant-starvation level ~150
Ice cores show that the last five interglacials
Holocene) all reached a similar 250-300 ppm,
i.e. a sort of 'equilibrium' value.
Since ~1850 when
industrial CO2 emissions began, atmospheric CO2 has climbed
CO2 today is 415 ppm, just 0.04% of our atmosphere
(i.e. less than half of one-tenth of 1%), far less than in
the past (Bullet 7).
Until man began
adding industrial CO2 about 1850, warming (determined from
'proxies' like tree rings) since the 1700AD
Little Ice Age
nadir was accompanied by slowly rising CO2 (measured in ice
A simple explanation is the well-known release of
CO2 by warming ocean water (decreasing its CO2-holding
besides Bullets 9, that rising CO2 is a consequence, not
cause, of global warming is the demonstration by Humlum et
al. (2013) that changes in CO2 growth-rate lag behind
changes in warming-rate, by ~1 year (see also Bullet 28).
Also, since the
start of industrial CO2 additions ~1850 (Bullet 8),
thermometer-measured global warming (1.3 centigrade [C]
degrees) was interrupted by frequent minor coolings of 1 to
3 years (some attributable to mega-volcano 'winters') and
two 30-year (1878-1910, 1944-1976) coolings (0.2 C degrees
each), plus the 1998-2013 'warming pause' (Wiki).
contrast, CO2's rise has accelerated, with only a brief
pause (1887-97) and a mini-reversal (1940-45), both during
This unsteady 'sawtooth'-style
of Modern Warming resembles the sawtooth rise of the sun's
magnetic output from 1901 toward a rare solar 'Grand
Maximum' (peak 1991), unmatched since 300AD!
See Bullet 21...
Warming reached a
peak in February 2016.
Since then, Earth has cooled for more
than 3 years (NB: no volcanic mega-eruption since 1991).
Theory' says rising solar-magnetic output, by deflecting
more cosmic rays, reduces cloudiness. This allows more of
the sun's warmth to heat the ocean and atmosphere (Bullet
28) instead of being reflected by clouds.
In support, a NASA
study of satellite data spanning 1979-2011 (during the
'Modern Warming'; Bullet 12) showed decreasing cloud cover.
scientist Stefan Rahmstorf (Wiki) of the Potsdam Institute
for Climate Impact Research wrongly said in 2008:
Yet in 1999, physicist Dr
Michael Lockwood FRS (Wiki) wrote in prestigious Nature
that averaged solar magnetic flux increased 230% from 1901
to 1995, i.e. more than doubled! The final peak value was 5
times the starting minimum value!
Bullets 17 and 18
likewise support Svensmark's theory.
After the ~300AD
solar Grand Maximum (Bullet 12), within 100 years Earth
warmed to near or above today's temperature.
cooling mimicked the sun's 1,000-year sawtooth decline into
the Little Ice Age.
From 8000 to
2000BC, Earth was sometimes warmer than now for centuries.
Then unsteady cooling from 3000BC to the Little Ice Age
paralleled unsteady solar decline after the 'Super-Grand
Maximum' of ~3000BC.
4,500-year-long cooling mocks IPCC computer models that
instead predict warming by the simultaneous (slow) rise in
This is the 'The Holocene Temperature Conundrum' of Liu
et al. (2014). See also Bullet 6.
for IPCC, the 8000-2000BC warm interval (Bullet 18) was
already called the 'Holocene Climatic Optimum' (Wiki) before
IPCC's 'CO2 = pollutant' fallacy induced today's
hysteria and pointless multi-trillion-dollar climate-change
The warmth may have benefited human social
records began (~1850; Bullet 1), sawtooth global warming
(Bullets 11, 12) correlates well with solar-magnetic flux by
applying an 85-year lag, attributable to oceanic thermal
inertia (vast volume, high heat capacity and slow mixing
cause slow response to changes in solar-magnetic flux, hence
cloudiness), grossly underestimated by IPCC (Bullet 22).
Thus Modern Warming is
driven ~100% Sun, dwarfing any CO2
effect (Bullets 5, 6).
The IPCC assumes
this time-lag (Bullet 21) is much shorter (< 1 year) and
therefore it claims that ongoing global warming despite
solar weakening (since 1991; Bullet 12) must mean that the
warming is driven by CO2!
interglacial period, ~120,000 years ago, was warmer than our
Holocene interglacial. Humans and polar bears survived!
was then about 275 ppm, i.e. lower than now (Bullet 8), at a
time of greater warmth!
The joint rise of
temperature and CO2 is a 'spurious correlation', a fluke.
demonizing CO2 as a 'pollutant' is a colossal
costing trillions of dollars in needless and ineffectual
efforts to reduce it.
Instead, governments need to focus
urgently on the imminent meter-scale Sun-driven sea level
Although the Sun
is now declining since its 1991 magnetic peak, sawtooth
warming will continue until ~2075 due to the 85-year lag
Rising CO2 will continue to raise global food
Cooling will begin ~2075 and last at least 28
years (i.e. post-1991 solar decline to date). Our benign
Holocene 'interglacial' period will eventually end,
IPCC says sea
level (SL) from 0 to 1800AD varied < 25 centimeters (and <1
meter since 4000BC) and never exceeded today's SL, therefore
the 30-centimetre SL rise since 1800 (average 1.5
millimeters/year) is abnormal (they say), blaming industrial
But this claim ignores dozens of studies of geological
and archaeological 3000BC-1000AD SL benchmarks globally,
which reveal 3 or 4 rises (and falls) of 1-3 meters in < 200
years each (i.e. > 5 millimeters/year), all reaching higher
than today, long before industrial CO2.
If humans were to
halt the growth in their fossil-fuel use, CO2 would soon
stabilize at a new equilibrium value (nearer the optimum for
By blaming global
warming on atmospheric CO2, the IPCC implies that ongoing
warming of the ocean (e.g. Cheng et al. 2020) occurs via the
But this is backwards.
In reality the
the ocean, which in turn warms the air.
Humlum et el. (2013)
showed that small changes in sea-surface temperature precede
corresponding changes in air temperature by 2 months, and
precede changes in CO2's growth rate by 12 months (because
warming ocean releases CO2; Bullet 9).
Thus Bullet 28 alone
destroys IPCC's argument that global warming is by CO2.
In November 2019,
Wikipedia deleted its 'List of scientists who disagree with
the scientific consensus on global warming', which named
dozens of renowned PhD scientists (with their own Wikipedia
entries), from diverse sciences, brave enough to publicly
challenge the global CO2 madness.
(Tens of thousands of
other 'skeptical' scientists are too timid to join in.)
Thus, your children may never know that many prominent,
impartial scientists disagree with the claim by the
under-qualified (Bullet 1) IPCC that global warming is due
to man-made CO2.
censorship. Fortunately the list survives, both online (for
now) and hard-copy.