by Jerome R. Corsi
May 17, 2010
A new "Little Ice Age" could begin in
just four years, predicted Habibullo Abdussamatov, the head
of space research at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical
Observatory in Russia.
Abdussamatov was speaking yesterday at the
Fourth International Conference on Climate Change in Chicago, which
began Sunday and ends today.
Little Ice Age, which occurred after an era known in scientific
circles as the
Medieval Warm Period, is typically defined as a
period of about 200 years, beginning around 1650 and extending
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See below video of Abdussamatov's
Russian Climate Scientist Predicts New Ice Age
May 17, 2010
In the first of a two-part video (above) recorded at the conference,
Abdussamatov explained that average annual sun activity has
experienced an accelerated decrease since the 1990s.
he said, the earth reached the maximum of the recent observed
In Part 2 of the above video, Abdussamatov further explained that through
2014 the earth will go through a series of unstable variations in
which global temperature will oscillate around the maximum reached
in the years 1998-2005.
In 2003-2005, Abdussamatov predicted a reduction of sunspot activity
that would reach a new minimum in 2042, resulting in a deep global
temperature minimum in the years 2055-2060.
"My predictions are looking better
and better with each passing year," Abdussamatov declared.
to refine predictions
In his capacity of the head of the
Russian-Ukrainian project "Astrometria"
on the Russian segment of the International Space Station, Abdussamatov is conducting additional research to refine his
prediction that a new Little Ice Age will begin in 2014.
As seen in Part 2 of above video, Abdussamatov explained to the
climate conference that the Russian segment of
the ISS is scheduled
to collect more precise data on
sun activity over the next six
"If the Astrometria project is
developed in time," Abdussamatov said, "we will be able to
develop a more precise forecast of the duration and the depth of
the approaching new Little Ice Age and to understand the reasons
of cyclical changes taking place in the interior of the sun and
the ways they affect the Earth and various scopes of human
Abdussamatov's theory is that,
variations in the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth are the
main and principal reasons driving and defining the whole mechanism
of climatic changes from the global warmings to the Little Ice Ages
to the big glacial periods."
In his speech's conclusion, Abdussamatov took on advocates of the
theory of man-caused warming who want to diminish human use of
He contended, instead, that a reasonable way to
combat coming cooling trends would be,
"to maintain economic growth in
order to adapt to the upcoming new Little Ice Age in the middle
of the 21st century."
Abdussamatov's research amounts to a sharp rebuke of climate
scientists who believe human-generated carbon dioxide is responsible
for causing catastrophic global warming, issuing instead a news
flash announcing "Sun Heats Earth!"
WND previously reported Abdussamatov published a paper in which he
tracked sunspot activity going back to the 19th century to argue
that total sun irradiance, or TSI, is the primary factor responsible
for causing climate variations on Earth, not carbon dioxide.
Moreover, Abdussamatov's analysis of sun activity data has led him
to conclude that the Earth is entering a prolonged cooling phase,
because sunspot activity is currently in a phase regarded as a
"Observations of the sun show that
as for the increase in temperature, carbon dioxide is 'not
guilty,'" Abdussamatov wrote, "and as for what lies ahead in the
coming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global,
and very prolonged temperature drop."
Abdussamatov's paper is featured on page
140 of a
2009 report issued by the U.S. Senate Committee on
Environment and Public Works, documenting more than 700 scientists
who disagree that global warming is an anthropogenic, or man-made,
As historical support for his theory, Abdussamatov cited the
observations in 1893 by the English astronomer Walter Maunder, who
came to the conclusion that from 1645 to 1715 sunspots had been
That period coincided with the middle and coldest
part of the Little Ice Age.
Abdussamatov also observed,
"the most significant solar event in
the 20th century was the extraordinarily high level and the
prolonged (virtually over the entire century) increase in the
energy radiated by the sun," resulting in the global warming
that today climate alarmists believe is a man-made phenomenon.
"The intense solar energy flow radiated since the beginning of
the 1990s is slowly and decreasingly and, in spite of
conventional opinion, there is now an unavoidable advance toward
a global decrease, a deep temperature drop comparable to the
Maunder minimum," he wrote.
In his published paper, Abdussamatov
warned that more precise determination of when the global
temperature decrease will arrive and how deep it will be may not be
available for another eight years from his space station research.
"The observed global warming of the
climate of the Earth is not caused by the anthropogenic
emissions of greenhouse gasses, but by extraordinarily
solar intensity that extended over virtually the entire past
century," Abdussamatov wrote.
"Future decrease in global
temperature will occur even if anthropogenic ejection of carbon
dioxide into the atmosphere rises to record levels.
"Over the past decade, global temperature on the Earth has not
increased; global warming has ceased, and already there are
signs of the future deep temperature drop."
Abdussamatov concluded Earth is no
longer threatened by the catastrophic global warming forecast by
some scientists, since warming passed its peak in 1998-2005.
"The global temperature of the Earth
has begun its decrease without limits on the volume of
greenhouse gas emissions by industrial developed countries," he
"Therefore, the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol
aimed to rescue the planet from the greenhouse effect should be
put off at least 150 years."
National Geographic published Abdussamatov's explanation that the global warming observed in the
shrinking of the carbon dioxide "ice caps"
near Mars' South Pole was
caused by increased solar activity.
"The long-term increase in solar
irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars," Abdussamatov wrote.
Some 700 policymakers, opinion leaders,
elected national and state legislators, scientists, economists and
attending the Heartland Institute conference.
They come from a wide range of countries,
the United States
The Heartland Institute is a non-profit organization funded by 1,500
The organization says no corporate donor
provides more than 5 percent of its $7 million annual budget.