from EDRO Website



Below table lists the world’s cities that are likely to collapse completely or partially by or before 2012 in the first wave of collapse. The collapse would be caused by a combination of:

  • failing ecosystems

  • human-enhanced environmental catastrophes

  • failing infrastructure

  • food, water and fuel shortages

  • infectious disease

  • war, civil conflict and other dynamics...

Following the first phase of collapse, massive waves of human migration from the affected areas create a domino effect that causes the collapse of the remaining population centers shortly after.

Is your city safe?

To prevent misuse of data, commercial exploitation, or property speculation, the project coordinators are withholding names and specific details of the first phase of world’s collapsing cities until further notice.


See table below for general information.


Table C.1.

No. of world cities that could collapse completely or partially by 2012,

the corresponding regions/countries and number of people that would be affected initially, according to the worst case future scenario.

(Sources: MSRB, CASF)

Important Notice:

1. The date “2012” is based on the dynamic model simulations analyzing the environmental impact of excessive energy consumption. The CASF Committee and Members do NOT endorse Mayan Calendar or any New Age, ancient, or bible prophecies whatever.



The Dynamics of Collapse

The following exhibit lists the most probable [leading] causes that would drive the first wave of the world cities to collapse.

[Note: Data listed alphabetically]

  1. Accumulation of toxic pollution in the environment

  2. Civil conflict

  3. Collapse of fisheries/fish species

  4. Collapse of natural pest regulation systems

  5. Deforestation

  6. Desertification; Soil degradation (salination, erosion, loss of topsoil and fertility)

  7. Droughts

  8. Economic collapse

  9. Epidemics of plant and animal diseases

  10. Extreme climatic events (including extreme rain events, floods)

  11. Failing ecosystems

  12. Famine

  13. Food-borne, waterborne, airborne and insect-borne infectious diseases (viral, bacterial, parasitic, fungal, prion)

  14. Fuel shortage

  15. Global collapse of pollinators

  16. Habitat destruction

  17. Human-enhanced natural catastrophes including earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, hurricanes, tropical storms, cyclones, extreme rainfall events, landslides, volcanic eruptions, droughts and wildfires …

  18. Human-induced climate change

  19. Increased UV radiation

  20. Industrial accidents (including radionuclide, chemical and oil spills)

  21. Inordinate prevalence of psychopathology caused by exponential growth economy: money fetishism, industrialism, militarism, atomic lifestyles, consumerism, throwaway culture, dysfunctional societies …

  22. Land use change

  23. Mass suicide as a result of neurological disorder caused by mercury [or other heavy metal] poisoning.

  24. Moral decline (unethical behavior, unsustainable lifestyles, over-consumption)

  25. Overshoot of Carrying Capacity; Increased ecological footprint; Overpopulation (esp. DCs *)

  26. Overwhelmed by mounting waste: agricultural, municipal (garbage and sewage) and industrial

  27. Poor global harvest/Food scarcity [Humans are one harvest away from starvation!]

  28. Poverty

  29. Running Dry (Running out of freshwater)

  30. Sinking into the ground (large-scale subsidence caused by overuse of groundwater supplies)

  31. Societal collapse

  32. Spread of pandemic diseases

  33. Tourism [euphemistically, eco-tourism]

  34. War (conventional and nuclear)

* DCs: Developed Countries



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