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January 04, 2026 from RT Website
© Matt Cardy
Getty Images
Russian analysts warn of a bold show of force aimed at Latin America and global stability...
The US government has charged Maduro with drug
trafficking and terrorism and intends to try him in New York.
Diplomatic activity has also intensified in
Caracas and other Latin American capitals, highlighting deep
disagreements over the legitimacy of the intervention.
The entire, meticulously documented saga of transporting Venezuela's captured president to the United States, filmed at the most humiliating stages of his detention, seemed designed to convince a target audience that clearly extends beyond Latin America that Fukuyama's 'end of history' never really happened.
If anything, this is not the first quarter of the 21st century, but very much the first quarter of the 19th - the era when the doctrine itself was proclaimed.
No liberal sentimentality. Just raw power.
The shackles and chains binding the Venezuelan president's legs on the tarmac at Stewart Air National Guard Base, as he is escorted from a Boeing arriving from Guantánamo to a hangar.
DEA agents clustering together for a group photo:
Maduro, notably, did not break.
His mocking 'Happy New Year!' uttered en route to the DEA's New York headquarters will likely be quoted for years.
These are indeed new times - above all for
Donald Trump...
The reason is obvious.
Judging by who remains in power in Caracas, Trump's original plan is far from being realized.
Whose efforts ensured that outcome remains an
open question. But recalling that, ahead of Operation 'Absolute
Resolve,' the White House hosted the US ambassador to China while
Maduro received a Chinese delegation, it is not difficult to guess
who drew a red line - in both the literal and figurative sense - in
front of Trump. Hence the bravado, the ultimatums, and the immediately declared limits of what is possible.
The first to be tossed into the spam folder was opposition figure María Corina Machado, whom Trump dismissed as lacking leadership qualities...
His promise to assume transitional control over Venezuela, meanwhile, almost instantly collided with his own bargaining with the country's new/old authorities.
The United States, Trump said in an interview, would refrain from deploying troops on Venezuelan soil if the newly sworn-in Vice President Rodríguez does what Washington wants.
What Trump wants is simple:
Caracas, for its part, has already delivered the standard response:
Of course, there is also the stick.
Trump is already threatening a second wave of strikes. But he has inadvertently revealed his greatest fear: a ground operation - the dreaded boots on the ground.
That is something today's Trump-era America could not sustain under any circumstances, even in its own backyard.
And that is precisely why what happened on the
night of January 2-3 is less a tectonic shift in geopolitics -
Washington has manhandled Latin America plenty over the past two
centuries - than a significant domestic political milestone.
Venezuelans and Hondurans, Mexicans and Cubans, Salvadorans and Nicaraguans - the backbone of the Republican Party's emerging electorate - have little interest in Ukraine or globalist ambitions.
One cannot say that this is a bad thing.
Head of VGTRK's New York Bureau.
Anastasia
Gafarova - Political analyst and deputy director of the Center for
Political Information
The US will act quickly and aim for maximum effect. Venezuela, with its impenetrable jungles and a well-developed guerrilla movement, inevitably evokes uncomfortable Vietnam-style analogies, which is precisely why the US administration wants to get in and out of this situation as fast as possible, with clear results.
And the result is obvious:
It cannot be ruled out that what happened is part of a broader political deal, possibly carried out with the consent of Maduro himself and his key partners.
Alternatively, it may be the result of betrayal
within the Venezuelan president's inner circle.
political analyst and deputy director of the Center for Political Information.
© Sputnik/Maria
Devakhina
Maxim Suchkov -
Director of the Institute for International Studies at MGIMO
University
It is risky because there is always the
possibility of getting bogged down. It is not reckless because, both
politically and militarily, a US operation against Venezuela appears
carefully thought through.
Talks with Russia over Ukraine have entered a decisive phase, with the assumption that Moscow would be unwilling to openly clash with Washington under such circumstances.
At the same time, the US has held intensive,
confidential talks with China in recent days, clearly delineating
what it considers its sphere of influence.
It follows the logic of so-called 'cognitive warfare':
Yet the 'Trump-style world order' is not limited to a traditional American sphere of influence.
In Venezuela's case, it is also a powerful
instrument for managing the global oil market. And
that goes well beyond Latin America, directly affecting Russian
interests...
Director of the Institute for International Studies at MGIMO University. © Sputnik/Kirill Zykov
Trump needed to mobilize his electoral base and secure additional support from the Venezuelan and Cuban diasporas, which are deeply hostile to left-wing regimes, including the government in Venezuela.
But as the situation evolved and tensions
mounted, Trump said and did so much that, at a certain point, he
could no longer pull back.
The actions by US military and special forces on
January 3 mark a new phase of escalation, one in which the stakes
are now significantly higher.
For Washington, full control over the Western Hemisphere is essential, and the presence of openly antagonistic states in the region is unacceptable. Venezuela also holds vast oil reserves and, more generally, considerable strategic potential.
Unsurprisingly, successive US administrations - Republican and Democratic alike - have sought to weaken Venezuela's position and push for a more pro-American political order.
That said, Venezuela was never a top priority for
the US, and Trump's decision was shaped to a large extent by
domestic political pressures at home.
Beyond that, for a number of reasons, it is difficult to say what more can be done at this stage.
Director of the Institute of Latin America at the Russian Academy of Sciences.
© Sputnik/Vitaly
Belousov
Regime change in Venezuela in favor of a Washington-friendly government is framed by Trump's team not as another 'endless war' in the mold of Iraq or Afghanistan, but as a matter of US national security.
It is no coincidence that the pretext being advanced involves allegations - by all appearances entirely fabricated - of Caracas' involvement in drug trafficking and the funneling of migrant flows toward the US.
The overthrow of Maduro is meant to send a
message to all of Latin America about who is in charge of the region
and how one is expected to behave.
A ground operation would carry the danger of casualties and entanglement - precisely what runs counter to the president's stated instincts.
That said, if reports about Maduro being removed
from the country are true, Trump can already declare a sweeping
victory, regardless of what happens next inside Venezuela.
US actions can provoke nothing but outrage in Moscow. At the same time, providing any meaningful assistance to a country so distant and embedded in an entirely different geopolitical environment is simply not feasible. That is partly a matter of technical and logistical constraints, but there is also a political dimension.
Putin and Trump currently have another issue on the agenda that is far more consequential for Moscow:
And for all its sympathies toward Caracas, the
Kremlin is unlikely to upend the entire game with a critically
important counterpart over a secondary issue.
Trump's moves in Latin America are tied to a broader strategic objective:
Beijing, however, is also unlikely to take any
concrete action in this situation.
Editor-in-Chief of Russia in Global Affairs. © Sputnik/Grigory Sysoev
It is also well suited to today's information environment for exactly that reason.
But taken seriously, invoking a concept that is two centuries old - assuming it is meant seriously at all, which itself is debatable - serves a purpose beyond mere spectacle:
Any first-year international relations student should understand that historical analogies do not work as an analytical tool, just as outdated concepts do not work as a basis for policy - simply because the context has changed so profoundly over the past 200 years.
In other words,
And it is hardly surprising that, when expressed
through the American lens, this crisis takes on its most dramatic
and theatrical forms.
professor at the Higher School of Economics. © Sputnik/Irina Motina
The US military operation against Venezuela is another such case, though with a distinct twist.
The overthrow of a sitting government and the
seizure of a country's president are far rarer phenomena. This
episode highlights the growing vulnerability of political systems in
a region that is geographically distant from other centers of power.
In a significant number of capitals, officials
will now be asking themselves whether he might be willing to take
the same risk with them.
program director of the Valdai Club. © Sputnik/Grigory Sysoev
The latter is confirmed by a specialized UN
agency. That means the current military operation, like the actions
taken against Venezuela over recent days and weeks, has no
substantive justification whatsoever.
Order must be based on international law, not on so-called 'rules.'
International law has clearly been violated. An
order imposed in this manner must not prevail.
The global minority, by contrast, faces agonizing choices:
deputy speaker of the Federation Council. © Sputnik/Sergey Bobylev
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