by David E. Sanger
October 17, 2025

from NYTimes Website

Article also HERE

People walking

under a painting of Hugo Chávez,

the Venezuelan president

who died in 2013, in military garb.
In Caracas.

Credit: The New York Times

We examine the

Trump administration's tactics

against Venezuela....

There were two remarkable parts to what President Trump told reporters in the Oval Office this week about Venezuela:

what he said, and what he didn't say.

The president confirmed a New York Times scoop, published a few hours earlier by my colleagues Julian Barnes and Tyler Pager, that he had secretly authorized the C.I.A. to conduct covert action inside the country, part of a U.S. campaign against Nicolás Maduro, the authoritarian leader who clings to power there.

That was a remarkable statement because presidents don't acknowledge directives that allow spies to accomplish a secret mission. The whole idea of having a C.I.A. is to allow the United States to operate in the shadows and conduct "deniable" operations.

The normal answer to questions about such authorizations, used by almost all of the presidents since World War II, is something along the lines of I don't know what you are talking about, but if I did, I couldn't comment.

But in this case, commenting may have been the point.

Privately, Trump administration officials have said they want to drive Maduro from power.

In that context, the warships massing off Venezuela's Caribbean coast, the 10,000 troops poised nearby and the bombing of boats allegedly filled with "narcoterrorists" are efforts at psychological warfare...

Trump hopes to scare Maduro into exile.

Trump added to the pressure on Wednesday when he said the next step might be a land attack.

The Rationales

Which takes us to the second point:

what Trump has never talked about.

He has declined to explain, to Americans or even to many in Congress, what exactly he is trying to accomplish.

What interests are being served here?

 

How is this "America First"?

 

Stopping the flow of cocaine?

Well, that makes sense, but in that case the Navy is on the wrong coast:

Drugs headed to the United States largely come from the Pacific Coast, not the Caribbean, where the naval buildup is happening.

Access to oil?

That is what Maduro's government claims this is all about.

But there are ways of negotiating over oil short of military or covert action, and Trump cut off those talks weeks ago.

Sources: U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration;

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.

Samuel Granados/The New York Times

Reviving democracy?

Maybe, but that's what the old neocons attempted in the forever-wars era, American First adherents say - an era they discredit as a huge error.

 

And "promoting democratic values" has never been a big priority for a president who openly admires authoritarians, in Russia, Turkey, Hungary and elsewhere.

Which leaves regime change as the all-but-certain explanation...

Interventions Past

The U.S. Embassy in Caracas.

Credit: The New York Times

One problem for Trump is that his pretexts for action keep falling apart.

Intelligence agencies have already shot down the idea that the Maduro government is sending criminals to sabotage the United States. (The analysts were either shut down or fired.)

Drugs are an issue, but Venezuela is not a source of fentanyl, the most damaging narco-import. Its ingredients come from China and are brewed in Mexico, and Trump doesn't advocate regime change in those nations.

America has engineered many attempts to remove one leader and install a more pliant one.

That history is checkered at best.

It might be helpful for the president and his aides to remember them, says Tim Weiner, a former Times reporter whose new history of the C.I.A., "The Mission," reminds readers of what happens when regime-change operations go wrong.

"Think Iran, Guatemala, the violent overthrow of Diem in South Vietnam," he told me.

Many resulted in unnecessary deaths, but almost all led to unintended consequences, often disastrous ones...!