by George Gilder
"The computer of the
future will be as portable as your watch and as personal as your
wallet. It will recognize speech and navigate streets, collect
your mail and your news."
I wrote that in 1990 in
Life After Television.
Seventeen years later, the iPhone was announced in California to the
amazement of the world.
How did I know that
smartphones would exist almost two decades before the first
Simple. I followed the
advice of Caltech's
"Listen to the
technology and find out what it is telling us."
But what now?
The iPhone has become so mainstream that I see 3-year-olds
brandishing the devices like action figures or toy dolls.
Well, based on what I'm hearing in the technology world today, the
next phase of growth will involve a complete restructuring
of the Internet.
And it's the basis for my newest book
Life After Google, a title that
happens to feature what I believe to be the first casualty of the
new Internet infrastructure.
A New Paradigm
is About to Emerge
No one can argue Google's impressive growth. It grew a company from
nothing to a $700 billion market cap behemoth.
It has dominated in the world of search and cloud computing.
We live in
the Google era. There's no
doubt about that. But that era is coming to an end...
I chose Google to
highlight the problems with the current Internet infrastructure
because the company is fundamentally flawed.
Indeed, we already know
that its advertising business is not sustainable.
Did you know that 30%
of your payments for smartphone services go to download ads that
you don't want to see?
And only 0.06% of
these smartphone ads are clicked on?
According to surveys, 50% of these clicks are made in error.
That means only 0.03%
of ads are actually desired.
This is a catastrophe...
And it's not a viable business.
Google is coming to the
end of the line in smartphone advertising.
Of course, advertising isn't Google's only business. It also offers
search and solutions - where, through artificial intelligence and
the company's increasing accumulation of big data, it can answer all
But that is where Google becomes downright delusional...
In my book, I call Google out as "neo-Marxist."
Hear me out...
The key error of
Marxism was Karl Marx's belief that the Industrial Revolution of
the 19th century was final attainment. That the
problem of productivity and wealth creation had been solved
And from then on, the only challenge would be how to distribute
wealth, rather than how to create it.
What does this have to do
Well, Google is just
repeating Karl Marx's error with the new technology.
Google believes that
its artificial intelligence, its machine learning, its robotics,
its algorithmic biology, its search, its solutions, constitute a
new final achievement of human beings.
In fact, I'd take it one
Google's Marxism is even
more grandiose than Karl's original vision.
Google imagines a
singularity where the machines will eclipse the human minds and
allow all of the rest of us to retire on beaches and collect a
guaranteed annual income.
In other words, robots are running the world.
While the leaders of
the revolution - like Sergey Brin and Larry Page - fly off with
Elon Musk to some remote planet in a winner-take-all
Again, this is
And not just because of the diminishing returns of big data (the
cost to store all of that data vs. the profits it generates)...
The flaw I'm talking about involves the human condition.
Reach an Insurmountable Limit
You see, these big cloud data centers and artificial intelligence
can only address a deterministic problem.
the outcome is always
determined by inputs. There can be no surprise. No entropy.
A deterministic problem can be solved by a machine. But they are
irrelevant to information.
is defined by surprise.
It's unexpected bits. And
surprise is the essence of human creativity. Surprises in a machine
represent a breakdown. It's bad news when your machine starts
Of course, Google people try to simulate creativity in machines
randomness to the machines. And
they pretend that that is inherently creative. But they're
subtracting information rather than adding it.
Machines do not essentially think. They don't know anything. There
are systems of gates, of dumb components.
They lack this creativity
which is epitomized in only unexpected bits, the surprising results
that human minds and imaginations can generate.
Google believes that
with big data, it can predict everything. All the answers can be
extracted from the company's aggregations of big data.
But imagining that some
technology that you've come up with is the final technology - one
that will end the human adventure - is absurd.
Indeed, Google's era will come to an end. Sooner than many think...
But what comes after?
What will be the new backbone of the Internet that allows for
spontaneity and creativity to flourish once again?
blockchain. Yes, the same
technology you associate with
Blockchain and related cryptographic technologies are about to lead
a creative insurgency - one that will provide several profitable
opportunities in the months ahead.