by Tom Luongo
The new leadership team of the EU is insane. They learned nothing
from Theresa May's vote which saw the middle ground occupied
by Angela Merkel lose support.
Euroskeptics doubled their
representation while nationalist Greens gained ground as well. The
European People's Party lost
significant clout and was forced into unprecedented haggling over
the leadership bloc.
Merkel, now having no political future to protect, as her last act
of betrayal to Germany engineered the 'election' of Ursula
von der Leyen to replace Jean-Claude "When things get tough
you have to lie" Juncker as European Commission President.
Von der Leyen is more of a euro-integrationist than
Jean-Claude Juncker was.
It's clear they circled
the wagons knowing that, as Nigel Farage points out in this
clip (below video),
the EU will look
nothing like it does now in five years when her term is up. Just
like the EU today looks nothing like it did in 2014 when Juncker
So, it's time to go for
broke and push for everything before it all falls apart.
But the trends are clear.
Von der Leyen is the
past and Nigel Farage is the future of Europe...
Nigel Farage CLASHES with Ursula von
'Thank God we're leaving!'
16th July 2019
More of everything EU is
expected from them and there's every reason to take them at their
The only interesting thing Von der Leyen said here was that they
would be happy to offer another extension. That's only interesting
because it sets her at odds with French President Emmanuel Macron.
Of course the EU is happy to keep the UK in limbo.
But here's the rub.
The Brexit Party
polling just behind Tories, who have rallied behind Boris
Johnson to stabilize their poll numbers. Johnson has to keep
talking No-Deal Brexit or the knives come out for him.
But the EU, regardless of what happens next week when the votes
for Prime Minister are revealed, isn't done with the UK.
They are still looking to
send stern warnings to the rest of Europe.
Case in point is its pointless spat
with Switzerland over stock market access,
which went into effect on July 1st. The EU, spitefully
and with full admission of sending a message to London, refused to
extend existing agreements to allow Swiss traders to trade on EU
The Swiss responded in
And despite the worst hand-wringing it seems in these first few
weeks of trading, nothing of note has occurred. But Bloomberg
(see link above on 'Switzerland'...) will never back off on the future doom porn,
because you know, 'reasons'...
Swiss stocks have well bid, there are no significant price
arbitrages and trading flows are adjusting because that's what
If the Swiss can stand up to the EU, who are surrounded by them and
do much more business with them than the UK as a percentage of
domestic trade, then so can London.
This was supposed to scare more City of Londoners into pushing for
Merkel and May's Terrible Treaty.
I think looking at the depths to which the EU will reach to maintain
their present course is far scarier.
Mish (Mike Shedlock)
great post on the timeline of how to stop
Brexit through a no-confidence
vote. It's worth every bit of your time. Basically, the window is
And the Remainers, like Dominik Grieve,
are running out of time to come up with a plan.
Parliament passed a motion that keeps Johnson from proroguing past
the Halloween deadline. But, that's wasted effort. They have less
than a week to call for a vote of no-confidence to organize another
election before October 31st.
Which brings us to the votes.
Where do things stand...?
Regardless of the votes in parliament, the polls are showing
Remain will lose that fight. One poll from last weekend have the
Tories (25%) and Brexit (21%) running first and second.
An aggregate of recent
polls yields a parliament could look something like this.
The time for a general
election was back during the height of the Brexit focus and the
original March 29th deadline.
Labour leader Jeremy
Corbyn had his chance before the EU elections, but his silence
was deafening. Because he didn't have the votes...
Now Labour have moved
completely to the Remain camp and the polls create a lot of
uncertainty. But that is their job, to muddy the waters and move
public opinion, not reflect them.
If Corbyn goes for the vote of no-confidence it will be
because he has the votes in parliament to force the election. But in
doing so he will likely shift public sentiment the 3-5 points needed
to create a Tory/Brexit majority that will deliver Brexit.
This is Mish's point about how the currency markets are trading.
With the pound collapsing this is your signal that the markets think
Brexit is happening. It's also helping the euro levitate along with
lovey-dovey noises from various
All of this depends on 'if' (and this is a big if)
Boris Johnson is actually committed to Brexit and isn't just
another stalking horse for the EU, like Theresa May.
It should be shocking that in all the time May was negotiating with
the EU she never once countered with a no-deal scenario. But it
really isn't. May was put in charge, like Von der Leyen to keep the
European Project on track.
She should be tried for treason, in my opinion...
Farage is forcing this.
Brexit is now very likely, because Farage is
pushing Johnson on what comes after Brexit. The
Brexit Party is running a campaign
on how to spend the savings from paying the EU's blood money.
This is powerful stuff that speaks to the voters for the next
election. Farage knows that the Brexit Party has to become more than
just a single issue, that it has to brand itself as the solution for
a post-Brexit UK.
It's the kind of branding
that creates social movements and lasting political change, not
The Tories + Brexit
hold around 44-46% of the vote.
Labour and the
That seems to be the
ceiling right now.
They would need both the
Scottish Nationalists and the Greens to form a
government. It would scuttle Brexit and little else. But it couldn't
do it in time regardless.
Flavible's projections are now a combined 297 seats. I suspect this
is a minimum projection for Brexit and the Tories given the
methodology and data inputs.
But if Johnson delivers Brexit, the
death of Labour and the LibDem will be swift heading into 2020.
And don't think for a second that Von der Leyen and the rest of the
Eurocrats in Brussels don't understand this dynamic. They are every
day looking more like a gang of
Baghdad Bobs rather
than world leaders.
Germany's economy is rotting. The massive safe-haven trade into
euro-zone debt on the promise of even more negative interest rates
has nearly reached its limit.
heading the ECB will only ensure the rapid formalization of more
consolidated power under it at the expense of national sovereignty.
When the dam breaks on EU monetary policy, a backroom deal between
the IMF, ECB and the European
Commission will come fast and at the last hour.
There will be no
votes on this loss of sovereignty for any Euro-Zone member.
As Germany's economy
rots, as Deutsche Banke falls and the rest of Europe is tied
to the boat anchor known as the Euro, the case against Remaining
For simplicity's sake, the fragile state of oil prices are
your leading indicator on this.
J.P. Morgan's falling Composite Purchasing Manager's Index is
The crisis of confidence in the EU is coming at us full steam.
Brexit has revealed not only the depths to which the people of
Europe have been betrayed by their leadership but also the people
pulling the strings behind the scenes.
Their collective insanity pushing for imperial, unaccountable
control over the continent will be the thing that undoes their plans
in the end...