So far, so technical...
Yet what this effectively means is that there will be a very narrow window next week, and then a slightly larger one in the final two weeks of October, for Parliament to act to prevent Hard BREXIT on Halloween.
The British constitution is largely unwritten and so allows wiggle room, and the government insists they have checked the legality of all they are proposing:
This is clearly a case of
Erskine May (the 'parliamentary
bible' that looks and sounds like it belongs in a Harry Potter tale)
turning into Erskine Maybe or Erskine Might...
...though this being the UK, perhaps that should be "teapot"; but there is not just tea but a genuinely revolutionary atmosphere brewing.
Bob Kerslake, former head of the civil service, is quoted in the Guardian as stating:
A Guardian op-ed advocates the current head of the civil service should follow the advice.
British royal family, already
facing one scandal, risks getting sucked into this given some had
expected the Queen might not accept the privy council's advice to
prorogue at all.
As such, what we are seeing transcends BREXIT, though I will return to it in a moment.
Rather, this is the broad warning from my 2016 'Thin Ice' report:
If you think that is hyperbole, consider this benchmark:
This is not going to change for the better until we get a global new paradigm emerging... and that is a long way off.
(Yes, Italy might cobble
together a Europhile-PD/Europhobe-5 Star government, but how
sustainable is that going to be, and will 5 Star's party members
Rather, it is an analytical view of how bitterly, deeply divided many countries are between,
One can argue "executive vs. legislature" or "executive vs. gate-keepers"; yet when the executive speaks of the "will of the people" as its justification it gets very Hannah Arendt very fast.
One can argue it left and right and back and forth... but ultimately we will need to see a winner.
And that is what markets need to focus on:
So back to the practicalities of BREXIT.
Parliament has only a few options:
...AFTER the BREXIT deadline of 31 October.
In short, this is all
likely to come to a neo-Cromwellian head next week, and Hard BREXIT
odds are right up there with an election leading us back to the same
Revoke vs. Hard BREXIT binary.
Great Britain Parliament (GBP) initially sold off and then recovered to hold around 1.22. Hardly an emerging market seeing meltdown.
...explains why we are crashing through our self-made Thin Ice in the first place, that and the fact that China continues to slow due to its vast self-made problems, according to the Bloomberg Economics gauge.
On which final note, today's CNY fixing was 7.0858, again slightly lower than the previous day, but again much stronger than where the fix was implied (7.1085) and where the market currently is at 7.1652.
That's another piece of neoliberal convention going rogue: