January 15, 2023

from RT Website

© Getty Images

Nirut Sangkeaw / EyeEm

Inflation and recession

will be the constant companions

of the global economy

for years to come,

according to Nouriel Roubini

The period of relative calm in the global economy has ended and what lies ahead is an era of stagflation, meaning a time of slow growth coinciding with higher unemployment and rising inflation, renowned economist and New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said on Friday.

According to Roubini, who was among the first to predict the 2008 financial crisis, today's situation may be even worse given the host of risks and "mega-threats" the world is facing.

"In the short term, there are [risks] related to the war in Ukraine, of course, to inflation and to the specter of a financial crisis which could arise in the next few months or in the next two or three years.

 

Added to this are mega-threats likely to materialize more or less severely in the long term... starting with climate change... geopolitical tensions which could degenerate into nuclear war between great powers, and socio-political instability," he said in an interview with the French news outlet Le Monde.

Roubini, dubbed 'Doctor Doom' by Wall Street, argued that the general consensus that inflationary pressures are temporary and that raising rates will temper soaring prices and provide for a "soft landing" of the economy is wrong.

"I think the landing will not be soft but harsh, and associated with financial stress.

 

Raising interest rates while the economy is losing momentum, with an overall level of debt much higher than in the 1970s, could cause a collapse in stock and bond markets, which could deepen the recession," he stated.

According to the economist,

"part of the solution will necessarily involve inflation, which reduces the debt burden."

"I'm not saying inflation is desirable, but I don't see how to avoid it. The era of the great moderation is over, we are entering the great stagflation."

Roubini also warned of a potential trade war between the West,

"and a group of revisionist powers," namely Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, "which could lead to a fragmentation of globalization and a re-localization of production chains, increasing global insecurity."

The economist urged the global community to learn from history and mobilize forces to prevent a further worsening of the crisis.

"We lived like zombies who go back to sleep despite the alarm ringing, and who have forgotten that history is not linear...

 

The creation of major international institutions enabled us to reconnect with a period of relative peace and prosperity. But believing that such an era can last is a mistake...

 

The main stages of grief are denial, anger, depression and acceptance.

 

If we look our problems squarely in the face, we can wake up and start mobilizing, but we're still stuck somewhere between denial and anger."

 

 

Nouriel Roubini

'We are Entering the Great Stagflation'

by Marie Charrel

January 13, 2023

from LeMonde Website

 

 

American economist Nouriel Roubini,

October 26, 2022, in New York.

EMMY PARK/MEGA/KCS PRESSE

 

 

Inflation,

trade war, global 'warming'...

The American economist,

known for his pessimism,

lists in his latest book

the major threats

facing economies

in the coming years.

 

He is one of the few who saw the 2008 crisis coming.

 

Sometimes called "Doctor Doom" because of his gloomy forecasts, Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University Stern School of Business, has published a new book, Megathreats.

 

It lists the risks facing economies in 2023 and beyond. The first could be a financial crisis.
 

 

 

You are among the few who saw the 2008 crisis coming - Is today's situation comparable?

It is difficult to say because we are facing a series of risks with different time horizons.

 

In the short term, there are of course those linked to the war in Ukraine, to inflation as well the prospect of a financial crisis that could materialize over the next two or three years.

 

In addition, there are "megathreats" that could materialize more or less severely in the longer term, and which do not only relate to the economy.

Climate change, eventually, if it's not controlled, of course, can destroy our planet. Geopolitical tensions could degenerate and lead to nuclear war. Not to mention socio-political instability.

 

Everywhere, we are seeing a backlash against liberal democracies.

 

 

How far could the recession caused by the energy crisis go?

The general consensus on the subject - that of policymakers, Wall Street and central banks - got it wrong for the last year and a half.

 

Central banks have long claimed that the inflationary pressures we are seeing are temporary. But they are not.

 

Then they said:

we will raise policy rates and calm inflation, with a soft landing of the economy.

This was also incorrect, as the UK demonstrates, with the country on the verge of stagflation resulting from very high inflation.

I don't think the landing will be soft. It's going to be severe and associated with financial stress.

 

Raising interest rates while the economy is losing momentum - with overall debt levels well above those of the 1970s - could cause a collapse of stock and bond markets, potentially deepening the recession.

Following the adoption of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the United States - something seen as detrimental to European industry - are you afraid of a trade war between the US and Europe?

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