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by Dr. Matthew Wielicki
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HERE
extreme weather refuses to cooperate.
where are all the climate-related "Disasters"...?
This idea didn't emerge from nowhere.
It has been repeated, often
verbatim, by governments, international institutions, scientific
bodies, and major media outlets. It became the mechanism by which
modest warming was transformed into an existential emergency.
The chart above shows global counts of climate-related disasters, including,
...compiled by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) in Brussels...
This database is known as EM-DAT, the Emergency Events Database.
It is not obscure.
EM-DAT has been used by:
For years, it was routinely cited to argue that,
Now that provisional 2025 data are available, that argument collapses.
What the Institutions actually Claim
To understand the starkness of the disconnect, it's essential to examine what authoritative institutions explicitly state should be happening.
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report states:
NASA echoes this message clearly:
NOAA's Climate.gov tells the public:
And the United Nations states bluntly:
Now compare those claims to the data.
What the Observational Data show instead
Over the last 25 years... the same 25 years in which:
...global climate-related "disaster" counts have not increased. They are flat...!
And in 2025, the year following the highest CO2 concentrations and some of the warmest global temperatures on record, total "disaster" counts are lower than at any point in the past quarter-century.
Yes, the 2025 data are provisional. EM-DAT has a modest reporting lag, particularly for events late in the calendar year.
The signal is not subtle.
The trend does not reverse.
If warming were driving an explosion of extreme weather, this is precisely where it should appear.
The most Revealing Detail - Extreme Temperature Events
One detail in the 2025 data deserves special attention.
In the entire world, EM-DAT recorded only one extreme temperature disaster in 2025. One...!
This is remarkable given how often we are told that heat waves are becoming ubiquitous, unprecedented, and increasingly deadly everywhere at once.
EM-DAT does not count warm days or uncomfortable summers. It counts documented disaster events that meet thresholds for impact, displacement, or mortality.
If heat extremes were spiraling out of control, this category should be surging.
Why Temperature was Never the Real Problem
Almost no one ever argued that a slightly warmer planet than 1850 was inherently dangerous.
The mid-19th century was an exceptionally cold, unstable, and unhealthy period for humanity... marked by reduced agricultural productivity, widespread disease, and geopolitical turmoil.
Returning to 1850 temperatures would not improve human welfare.
What made warming "dangerous," we were told, were the positive feedbacks:
Extreme weather was the mechanism by which warming became a "crisis"...
The Narrative persists Anyway
So, why does the "crisis" framing continue?
Because once a narrative becomes institutionalized, it no longer depends on observational confirmation.
When EM-DAT appeared to support alarmism, it was cited constantly.
The Smoking Gun Problem
After 25 years of rising emissions and record heat, the disaster surge that was supposed to justify a global emergency never materialized...!
It means the crisis narrative is failing its own empirical test.
Closing ThoughtIf extreme weather is not increasing, then the justification for permanent emergency politics collapses.
Without them, the climate crisis loses its foundation...!
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