by Cap Allon
ON CLIMATE CHANGE
THREE PILLARS OF
MAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING:
by Dr Roger Higgs (DPhil
Oxford, geology, 1982-86),
Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2020-7,
25 May 2020, amended 26-5-2020
The IPCC says 'ongoing warming is due to man's
CO2 emissions,' hence
'Anthropogenic Global Warming' (AGW).
However, the 3 pillars on
which they base this claim are unscientific and quickly disproved...
IPCC's Three Pillars
"Earth's average surface temperature
and man's CO2 emissions
both risen since 1850,
so CO2 must have caused the warming"
What else has risen? The Sun's magnetic output, affecting cloudiness
(Svensmark), more than doubled from 1901 to 1991 (Lockwood), to its
highest peak in 10,000 years (Higgs 1).
In those last 10,00 years, simple visual cross-correlation shows
changes in temperature lagged 60-160 years behind solar-output
changes, due to the ocean's vast heat capacity and slow mixing
(Higgs 1, 2) & …
…temperature and CO2 were uncorrelated, until their
joint rise from the late 1800s.
CO2 is still rising (NOAA), but Earth has cooled since 2016 (Met.
Office). Every passing day not 'warmest ever' for that date, at
multiple sites worldwide, embarrasses the IPCC.
Warming since 1910 paused 1945-75 (30 years) and 1998-2012 but CO2
"Global warming's continuance
despite the Sun's weakening after 1991
absolves the Sun and incriminates CO2"
This mismatch is simply due to the oceanic time-lag, currently about
Thus global warming will continue (with ups and downs,
mainly due to
the Sun's 11-year cycles) until around 2050, about 60
years after the Sun's 1991 grand peak (Higgs 2).
Pillar II was asserted in IPCC's 2013
'Fifth Assessment Report',
Chapter 10 (IPCC 1 p.887, co-author Lockwood [see (1) above], citing
4 of his own papers).
But IPPC already knew about the lag, Chapter 3
having stated the "ocean's huge heat capacity and slow circulation
lend it significant thermal inertia" (IPCC 2 p.266).
"Sea level (SL) for the last few thousand years
varied less than
so the 30cm SL rise since 1850
proves abnormal warming by CO2"
The 25 cm claim (only "medium confidence"; IPCC 3 p.385) is based on
selected evidence (Higgs 3) and on dismissal of the famed 1961 SL
curve (Fairbridge; Wiki) with SL oscillations of 2 to 5 meters in
the last 6,000 years, confirmed by dozens of later geologists
worldwide, and lately with very strong archaeological support (Higgs
4, 5, 6).
That's it. That's all they have. Be surprised.
The Sun was by far the main driver of global temperature for the
last 10,000 years.
CO2 is innocent; it has no climate effect; the simultaneous rise in
temperature and CO2 is pure accident; CO2's residual
effect' is effectively nil (Higgs 7, 8).
The IPCC urgently needs to consult geologists (Higgs 9, 10).
Another Sun-driven large sea-level rise is predictable (Higgs 11).
are passionate environmentalists.
is an entirely separate and deplorable issue,
wood smoke, chemical spills
and especially vehicle emissions
nitrogen oxides, tire & brake dust).
CO2 is not a pollutant (far
from it; Higgs 7).