by Dr. Joel S. Hirschhorn
from NOQReport Website
Created the Covid Pandemic...
This is the story of how
one Big Lie turned our world upside down and ruined the lives of
millions of people.
But it happened...
It quickly pushed a fast, enormous response to protect public health.
corrupt data from CDC, overstatement of COVID lethality continues
How should we think about the fatality rate of a virus?
But another possible way would be to invoke the Case Fatality Rate (CFR):
How can you know how many people are infected? A lot of testing would be necessary.
For our COVID 'pandemic' there has been, surprisingly, very little wide blood testing across the whole population. Many people with infections have no symptoms or just mild ones and do not seek testing or medical attention.
The CDC has done a
terrible job of getting good data on infection numbers.
On the other side, the
PCR test method most widely used has often been implemented in a way
to get false positive results.
Thus, the CFR is not a reliable or accurate measure of the real death rate despite widely published case numbers.
During a March 11, 2020 hearing of the House Oversight and Reform Committee on coronavirus preparedness, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID), put it plainly:
He also said:
That figure of 3 percent, far from reliable, is 30 times greater than the figure given for the seasonal flu. Fauci exaggerated to create a crisis. Simply by implying great lethality for everyone infected by the new COVID virus.
And it should be noted that CDC has found the flu IFR ranged from 0.1 percent (the figure cited by Fauci) to 0.17 percent [.0017] from 2014 to 2019, because seasonal deaths vary significantly.
What Fauci said put the country, with the help of big media, into convulsions. It created the foundation for authoritarian contagion controls driving a spike into the lives of Americans.
Fauci intentionally created the 'pandemic' by creating fear.
New York City analysis
An interesting analysis was made for IFR for New York City at the height of the 'pandemic' in May 2020.
It illustrates how both death and infection data can be fine-tuned to get an IFR. As to deaths, blood testing found that 19.9 percent of people had antibodies indicating infection, yielding a number of 1,671,351 infected.
As to deaths from COVID, there were three components:
Probable meant likely COVID death but not confirmed through testing.
Excess meant the number above expected seasonal baseline level. Using the total deaths divided by total infected produces an IFR of .014. Higher than the usual quoted flu value [.001] for the height of the 'pandemic' in high density New York City.
And without consideration of variations among most vulnerable groups. A high rate of fatality for elderly people would cause a deceptive high value for IFR for the entire population.
Deaths certainly have declined significantly in the past year and more (even as high transmissivity delta variant has probably maintained high levels of infections).
Because of far better actions in hospitals and because infected people have surely learned a lot about home treatments to catch COVID infection early after initial symptoms and possibly a positive test.
Cutting the deaths in half for the same number of infected people results in an IFR of .007, probably a more realistic figure for today.
World Health Organization
At an October 2020 meeting of the World Health organization, Dr Michael Ryan, the Head of Emergencies revealed that they believe roughly 10 percent of the world has been infected with Sars-Cov-2.
This is their "best estimate."
This figure was based on the average results of all the broad seroprevalence (blood) studies done around the world. The message was that the virus is nothing as deadly as everyone predicted.
At the time the global population was roughly 7.8 billion people, if 10 percent have been infected that is 780 million infections. The global death toll then attributed to Sars-Cov-2 infections was seen as 1,061,539.
That's an infection fatality rate of roughly or 0.14 percent [.0014].
Now consider the detailed analysis "Public Health Lessons Learned From Biases in Coronavirus Mortality Overestimation" by Ronold B. Brown published in August 2020.
He has doctoral degrees in public health and organizational behavior.
Here are highlights from this article that focused on what Fauci said.
Brown correctly hit the key semantic issue:
Brown correctly emphasized,
Brown said the 1 percent figure in the testimony was consistent with the,
[As I write this data in The Washington Post shows a CFR of 1.6 percent. This substantiates that the health care system has made progress in curbing COVID deaths. But this current CFR is still 16 times higher than the IFR figure for the seasonal flu. IFR remains the issue.]
Now Brown gets to the heart of the problem:
By May 2020,
As to getting good data to determine IFR, Brown noted:
The title of this September 2020 article by Len Cabrera is "Mistake or Manipulation."
An initial point made was:
If not a mistake, then it was intentional...
This point was dead on:
And this critical point was made:
In other words, if the number of deaths is the same, then a lower denominator for calculating CFR compared to that for getting the IFR results in a higher number for CFR.
Fauci set the stage for his wait-for-the-vaccine 'pandemic' strategy that he sold to President Trump.
This required that the government establish blocks to wide use of the safe, cheap, effective and FDA approved generic medicines already found to cure COVID in early 2020, namely ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine.
Details about these early treatment protocols are given in Pandemic Blunder.
Here is another point made:
Dr. Fauci was specifically asked if COVID was less lethal than H1N1 or SARS.
Rather than refer to his own NEJM article saying SARS had a case fatality rate of 9-10 percent (3 to 10 times worse than COVID), Dr. Fauci said,
He repeated that COVID's,
This also was a prescient view:
Add this to the quest for truth:
Here is the article's correct conclusion:
What is the truth?
If you listen to many experts, you hear this truth based on CDC data:
That means that the IFR overall is .001 or .002.
In September 2020 these CDC age related data were reported:
Note that through age 49 the IFR is less than the average for flu of 0.1 percent, but higher for older people.
And only for the 70+ group is the IFR more than 10 times greater. In other words, only for the oldest group is what Fauci said in his congressional testimony accurate.
What if Fauci had said something in tune with that reality?
From the important recent report "COVD-19: Restoring Public Trust During A Global Health Crisis" are age data and COVID CFR [through Feb. 16, 2021].
Note these are Case Facility Rate data, meaning that the figures are very exaggerated because the number of infected are very much higher than the number of cases: probably 100 million more infections than cases.
Thus, the total across all age groups of 1.701 percent, [.01701] should be corrected to .289 percent [.00289]; this is about three times higher than the cited flu IFR, not the 10 times higher given by Fauci.
And it would be much lower for the less than 70 population...
A very recent article said this:
Fauci did indeed overhype COVID for all but the very elderly.
This supports the view of the eminent Dr. Peter McCollough that a wise COVID vaccine strategy would have been to target the elderly, not the entire population.
The widely acclaimed medical researcher John P. Ioannidis of Stanford University has examined IFR for COVID in considerable detail,
In October 2020 he said this:
At that time, he said:
Higher than the Fauci quoted value for the flu (0.1 percent), but not 10 times greater.
A new report from the defense department gives data on 5.6 million fully vaccinated Medicare participants age 65 and older. There were 161,000 recent breakthrough COVID infections and the IFR was 0.021.
It noted an IFR for this group of0 .12 (about five times greater) during the March to December 2020 period when there was far less effective hospital care and no mass vaccination.
Both IFRs for elderly Americans are greater than the quoted typical flu value, but far from a very lethal viral infection.
Recently, it was reported that according to CDC work,
Using that figure, that may be too low because only 1.4 million blood samples were tested, together with the current CDC value of about 700,000 COVID fatalities results in an average IFR of 0.018.
Why is 39 million infected people low?
The key word to question in what CDC did is "diagnosed."
In other words, people who were tested and found positive. But clearly a large fraction of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic people did not get tested.
So, what if you add 100 million to the 39 million figure and then use that as the denominator, with 700,000 deaths in the numerator, and calculate the IFR?
You get an IFR of 0.005. Not ten times higher than the flu value cited by Fauci in his congressional testimony [actually 3 times higher than the high end of flu IFR values].
Podcaster Jack Murphy, who founded Liminal Order, deduced that because the CDC said there were twice as many people who were infected with COVID, then it automatically meant that the lethality rate must be cut in half, commenting that the virus that had killed 646,000 Americans in the last 19 months is,
To accept the entire argument for a Big Lie it is necessary to explain the motivation for Fauci to intentionally tell the public that,
It is relevant to note that in January 2017 Fauci warned the Trump administration, in a public talk, that no doubt there would be a "surprise outbreak" of a new infectious disease 'pandemic'.
He got what he wanted...
Maybe all the talk about a "plandemic" was spot on. And maybe Fauci had insights because he was funding the work at the Wuhan Laboratory to develop extremely toxic viruses.
What Fauci said about high lethality set in motion an onerous set of government actions justified on the basis of protecting public health.
Why would anyone want to overstate the lethality of the new COVID-19 virus?
The point is this:
Perversely, 'pandemic' public health actions actually harmed public health.
But with widespread mainstream media support Fauci got away with everything.
Hundreds of thousands of Americans died unnecessarily. Fauci is guilty of criminally negligent homicide stemming from his initial and very public overstatement of the lethality of the COVID virus.
With his power he created policies that created data to support this lethality claim.
One big action was to create a testing protocol using the PCR technology in ways that created very high case levels. The inventor of that technology said it was inappropriate for diagnosing the viral infection.
Millions of COVID cases resulted from running PCR equipment at very high cycle rates [high than 25]. Meanwhile the government never did widespread blood testing to get data for knowing the IFR.
The other major way to keep up public support for 'pandemic' controls was to ensure high numbers of COVID deaths.
This was done through directives on how death certificates should be filled out and through financial incentives for hospitals to certify deaths as COVID ones.
Recent analysis that in March 2020 CDC changed guidelines on how death certificates were to be filled out. Different than the procedure used for 17 years prior to this change.
This study found a COVID fatality figure of 161,392 with the new reporting versus 9,684 for the older procedure.
There is little doubt that COVID death data, even accounting for some overcounting because of people dying not from any COVID influence, have been too high.
The combination of false high levels of cases and deaths helped maintain public fear of a very lethal virus.
That is not correct for nearly all people younger than 70 years old.
To sum up:
There is no doubt that a great many people die with COVID but not FROM COVID, also arguing for a low IFR. At one point CDC said that only 6% of deaths resulted only from COVID, making the IFR much lower than the flu IFR.
Finally, recognizing the true lower IFR for COVID the whole rationale for mass vaccination collapses, especially in view of very high levels of adverse effects and deaths from the vaccines themselves.
Which makes perfect sense if you appreciate that the COVID IFR is now similar to the flu IFR for most people.
Especially if you recognize that CDC has found the flu IFR ranged from 0.1 percent (the figure cited by Fauci) to 0.17 percent from 2014 to 2019.
Understanding that the lethality of COVID is far from the terrible picture painted by Fauci at the very beginning of the 'pandemic' is key to weighing the risk/benefit ratio when deciding to get vaccinated.
A new article has made important observations.
The main one is that countries with low vaccination levels have been doing better than those with mass vaccination programs, like the US.
The results are consistent with a widely accepted understanding that the vaccines do not effectively stem virus infection or transmission.
The new study ended with advice to learn,