by Laura Knight-Jadczyk
08 January 2008
Today we are going to look at the Summary of Conclusions about
Fireballs and Meteorites that
Victor Clube attached to his cover
letter to the Chief, Physics and BMD Coordinator of the European
Office of Aerospace Research and Development back in 1996, 5 years
before September 11, 2001; that, and a few other things.
I often get accused of "fear mongering" because I keep bringing this
subject up again and again.
I even think that it is fascinating that
the big breakthrough in my
experiment in Superluminal Communication
came on the day that the fragments of
Comet Shoemaker-Levy began
striking Jupiter - even at the very moment of the first impact - and
that this communication with "myself in the future" has focused so
much attention on the subject of swarms of comets and comet
fragments that repeatedly barrel through the solar system, wreaking
havoc and bringing death and destruction to earth.
As a result of
the research prompted by this communication, I wrote an entire 800
page book that is woven around the issue of cometary explosion type
catastrophes that obviously have occurred repeatedly throughout
The Secret History of The World.
In the early days of publishing the results of this experiment, I
was nonplussed by the many attacks I came under from all quarters. I
was accused of "channeling aliens" (not true); of wanting to "start
a cult" (what is cultic about doing research into scientific
subjects and exposing religion for the fraud it is?) and so on.
sort of thing really hurt and puzzled me at first, but I have now
seen it for the blessing it was: it has helped me to learn about,
kinds of people who
are in charge of our world
the kind of people
who want to keep secrets so that they can hang onto power
of people who create such things as "The War on Terror" to conceal
from the masses of humanity the future that may very well bring our
civilization to an end
the kind of people who know that survival of cometary
bombardment is possible and who want to be the only ones who
do survive, and to hell with everyone else
Mike Baillie, in his book
about the Black Death, writes:
It is increasingly evident that intellectually the world is divided
There are those who study the past, in the fields of
history and archaeology, and see no evidence for any human
populations ever having been affected by impacts from space. In
diametric opposition to this stance there are those who study the
objects that come close to, and sometimes collide with, this planet.
Some serious members of this latter group have no doubt whatsoever
that there must have been numerous devastating impacts in the last
five millennia; the period of human civilization. In a paper
published in 2005, David Asher and colleagues have looked at the
objects that are known to have come close to the earth in recent
They conclude, based on various strands of evidence (for
example, the number of meteorites discovered on earth that
originated on the moon) that the average time between impacts on
earth is no more than 300 years, probably less.
[Earth in the Cosmic
Checking the authors Baillie is referring to, we find Bill Napier
Napier is a colleague of Victor Clube. This brings us to
another division. There is a debate going on about this issue as was
mentioned by Clube in the first parts of the letter in question that
I quoted yesterday.
It is emphasized here that the present report expresses a viewpoint
which is contrary to the mainstream scientific theme currently
reinforced through various US agencies in the wake of recent major
findings under US leadership (e.g. those of Luis Alvarez, Eugene
Shoemaker, David Morrison etc.
Despite the importance of this
mainstream theme, it is recognized here that the cometary signatures
in the terrestrial record are generally stronger than the asteroidal
signatures in the case of both long term and short term effects i.e.
those affecting biological and geological evolution on the one hand
and mankind and civilization on the other.
The raison d'etre behind
this situation is a cometary input dominated in the long term by
objects >100 kilometers in size which substantially break up in the
short term into objects <1 kilometer in size, the "window" of
significance so far as the average interval between random impacts
by comets and asteroids in the intervening size range are concerned
being approximately 1-10 million years.
To concentrate, for
planetary defense purposes, on catastrophes which occur only within
this particularly narrow range of frequencies is patently absurd.
Clube's reference to the "mainstream scientific" ideas about comets
and asteroids and so on is only the tip of the iceberg in reference
to this debate.
The debate is about asteroids vs. comets. Asteroids are solid bodies
of rock and there are about 1000 of them with diameters of 1 km or
more that cross the orbit of the earth. They are called "Apollo" or
"earth crossing" asteroids. The "American School" of astronomers
believe that these objects are the main threat to earth and humanity
and they are concerned with finding them, tracking them, and working
out their orbits.
This school believes that if all these asteroids
can be mapped, and any "bad ones" dealt with, Earth will be safe for
the foreseeable future. Their estimates are that we only get hit
with one of these babies about every 100,000 years or so.
At this point in time, the American school of astronomers has
already found and tracked about 700 of the estimated 1000 such
asteroids and, so far, none of them are likely to hit the earth
anytime soon. By the end of 2008, they expect to have located 90% of
these potential threats.
Of course, they aren't talking about objects smaller than 1 km
because they are believed to pose much less risk even if they do
smack into the earth.
So it is that the "American School" believes that they can, over
time and with superior American technology, survey everything around
us and keep our space in space "under control."
What they are saying, as Baillie astutely points out is this:
are objects that cross the path of the earth but they hardly ever
hit us (only about every 100,000 years), but they are going to make
us safe by finding any and all of them and devising methods to take
out the ones that MIGHT pose a threat at any point in the future.
They assume, of course, that if they figure out that any of them
might be a threat by mapping their orbits, they will have time to do
In "Asteroid Astronomer World" there have not been any serious
impacts in the last few thousand years, for sure, and they are going
to see to it that it stays that way!
How typically American! Don't you worry, little Lady, John Wayne and
his gang will circle the wagons and shoot up those redskins/outlaws!
It's obvious that Victor Clube is not a member of the American
The "Comet Hazard" school is British based and they think very
differently from the American "mainstream" asteroid school.
Comets are said to be different from asteroids because they are made
up of water ice, frozen gas, organic materials, and odd bits of rock
and metal. The standard theory (which may need revision according to
those who advocate the electric universe theory) says that comets
are heated as they pass through the solar system and this causes
outgassing. It is then that we see them as bright objects with long
After a few circuits through the solar system, some comets "outgas"
completely and all that is left is a "very black lump" of any size,
typically at least a few kilometers in diameter. The reason a worn
out comet is so black is possibly due to the
poly-aromatic-hydrocarbons that are concentrated onto the comet's
surface like a coating of tar. Such objects, unlike asteroids, are
very difficult to spot because they do not reflect light.
Comets also leave trails of dust and debris in the inner solar
system and the Earth passes through such periodically. When this
happens, there are generally meteor showers which are really
particles of comets burning up in the atmosphere.
Comets can also break up in to smaller - but still sizable - chunks.
Now, imagine that in a trail of comet dust, there are also some
fairly large chunks of black, un-seeable, comet fragments. If you
can't see them, you can't do anything about them.
And when they do
"hit," they tend to burn up and/or explode violently in the
Tunguska event), so they don't leave long-lasting
traces such as craters for archaeologists to find and say,
fall of this civilization was due to an assault from outer space."
No, there is only fire, death and destruction; sometimes total.
What all this means is that the comet problem does not submit itself
to an efficient solution.
The Comet Hazard school scientists propose that the Tunguska event
was due to a fragment of
Comet Encke. These scientists also now have
the FACT of the fragments of
Comet Shoemaker-Levy hitting Jupiter in
July of 1994 to illustrate the problem we face.
The Comet Hazard
scientists also think, as mentioned above, that impacts are a lot
more frequent than many people suppose.
So, to sum it up: there are two very different schools that study
hazards from space.
The Asteroid school says that there have been
very few impacts and the problem is solvable, and the Comet school
says there is evidence that there have been numerous impacts by
comet debris that have had profound effects on human civilizations,
and will again, probably very soon.
Okay, now let's take a look at Victor Clube's summary of the
Asteroid strikes, though important, are not the most serious
short-term risk to mankind or civilization
Every 5-10 generations or so, for about a generation, mankind is
subject to an increased risk of global insult through another kind
of cosmic agency.
This cosmic agency is a "Shoemaker-Levy type" train of cometary
debris resulting in sequences of terrestrial encounters with sub-km
While the resulting risk is ~10%, the global insults take the form
of (a) multiple multi-megaton bombardment, (b) climatic
deterioration through stratospheric dust-loading, not excluding
ice-age, and (c) consequent uncontrolled disease/plague.
The sequence of events affecting involved generations is potentially
debilitating because, whether or not the risk is realized,
civilization commonly undergoes violent transitions e.g. revolution,
migration and collapse.
Subsequently perceived as pointless, such transitions are commonly
an embarrassment to national elites even to the extent that
historical and astronomical evidence of the risk are abominated and
Upon revival of the risk, however, such "enlightenment" becomes an
inducement to violent transition since historical and astronomical
evidence are then in demand.
Such change and change about in addition to the insult is evidently
self-defeating and calls for a procedure to eliminate the risk.
Our technological ability to counter (a) multiple multi-megaton
bombardment and (b) stratospheric dust-loading should therefore be
The very short lead-time commonly associated with the detection of
sum-km meteoroids approaching the Earth implies countering
procedures which differ from those associated with catalogued
km-plus asteroids and comets.
So, the question is: if there is even a 10 % chance that we are
facing a Shoemaker-Levy type event, why isn't anybody doing anything
Well... maybe they are. Maybe all this War on Terror business and
getting control of resources is, at its root, the psychopath's way
of handling a threat to their survival.
Maybe it isn't the "Twilight
of the Psychopaths" as Kevin Barrett might like to think... but the
Twilight of Humanity; if we don't wake up...
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