9. ATTITUDES AND VALUES
1. “...in any human situation, no matter how filled with quantitative data it may be, there are always present powerful human considerations that are incommensurable. These incommensurable -- a tangle of memories, prejudices, emotional needs, aspirations, common decencies -- exert a tremendous and probably always a determining influence upon the real, as opposed to the exposed, nature of a situation. Any wise decision in such a situation must take into account not only the data from which logical conclusions about present upgrading efficiencies can be drawn, but that other data which leads to the non-logical understanding of what human beings are, need, and want to be." See Elting Morison, "The Pertinence of the Past" (paper delivered at Executive Development Convocation, Spring 1959, School of Industrial Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology).
."it is commonplace to speak of attitudes and values as if there was clear understanding and agreement on what was the referent of discourse. Close analysis of points of view seldom reveals a warranty for this assumption.
"This is, however, not the place for a lengthy excursion into the latest points of view in psychology and sociology on these concepts. A word or two of elaboration may nevertheless clarify the intent of later passages and sections of this chapter.
"Only in the crudest sense are attitudes and values preferred positions on a scale from strongly 'for' to strongly 'against' some stated position or state of affairs. Essentially, attitudes and values refer to a variously organized body of knowledge (facts and fancies) involving recollections, present experiences and future expectations, this knowledge itself including evaluative categories and judgments. Thus, attitudes similar in the degree of endorsement or opposition to a position may be highly dissimilar in their content and structure.
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2. "Part of the content of any attitude or value is one's own self and one's associations which both validate and interpret one's position and perspective. Thus, attitudes and values are peculiarly a product of where one stands in society, where one has been, and where one is going. Thus, a sharp shift in one's social or physical environment, one's knowledge, or one's expectations about the future, inevitably has an impact on one’s attitudes and values.
"The content of knowledge about space is probably very sparse and unorganized (as is public knowledge about nuclear energy or foreign policy) and largely seen as irrelevant to one's self and one's associates. To the extent that developments or a lack of developments in space alter the body of knowledge, shift notions about relevance, and alter the viewpoints of one's associates, to that extent one can assume that there will be a shift in pertinent attitudes and values." (Correspondence with Stephen B. Withey, Director, Public Affairs Studies, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan.)
3. "What we think as individuals and as communities, and all the patterns of our behavior, make sense in a traditional context. They are relevant to the traditionally established circumstances in which we live. As these circumstances change, our thinking and behavior have to change too. The concepts, the attitudes, and the manners of old generations have to give way to new concepts, new attitudes, and new manners in the generations that succeed them. But tradition can change only slowly and painfully. Consequently, even in societies that are evolving at a leisurely pace there is likely to be some lag between the actual circumstances of the environment and the traditions that supposedly respond to them. What threatens when the pace is stepped up, however, is moral and intellectual chaos." See Louis J. Halle, "The Natural History of Man's Emergence into Space," International Political Implications of Activities in Outer Space, Jostph M. Coldsen, ad., RAND Corporation Report R-362-RC (196(i), P. 205. Also see Margaret Mead, Donald N. Michael, Harold D. Lasswell, and Lawrence K. Frank, "Man in Space: A Tool and Program for the Study of Social Change," Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Vol. 72 (April 10, 1958), pp. 165-214.
4. "Despite many years of discussion and many pages of writing, the actual tole of public opinion in the making of ... policy decisions, in the United States or elsewhere, is something of an enigma. To talk to some policy makers is to come away with the impression that public opinion is a highly volatile force, omnipresent, unpredictable, a combination of shifting searchlights within which the policy maker must function, and which constitutes a basic limitation on what he can do. On the other hand, there are both poll data and frequent observations which suggest that the policy maker is largely free to do what he wishes, and will do what he wishes, regardless of what those outside of government think or want .... This is one of the more obscure areas of political analysis .... Behind various statements about the role of public opinion work the implicit theories and intuitive calculations of public officials. So far as we know, these have not been described adequately or analyzed by scholars." Richard C. Snyder and James A. Robinson, National and International Decision Making (document prepared for the Institute for International Order, to be published early in 1961), pp. 102-103 of the draft copy.
5. See Clyde Kluckhohn, "Have There Been Discernible Shifts in American Values During the Past Generation?" in Elting Morison, ed., The American Style, Harper (1958), especially P. 181.
6. "But we are also going to have to deal with the dangers of mass insanity or mass imbecility, dangers that we may not recognize even in their realization. Anything we can do, therefore ' to keep wisdom alive will be to the good. Perhaps we should set aside some schools and some universities for the development of 'generalists,' a few men with broad philosophical minds and a command of general knowledge who can survey the whole human scene in which the mindless operatives swarm, who can speak for direction and ultimate purpose, who can preserve the heritage of humanity through the period of transition. Perhaps we should build a few ivory towers against the day when we are able again to resume, whether on earth or in outer space, that progress which, rather than identifying us with the bees, distinguishes us from them." See Louis J. Halle, "The Natural History of Man's Emergence into Space," International Political Implications of Activities in Outer Space, P. 208. (For full citation see Note 3 above.) See also Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusons and the Madness of Crowds, Ceorge C. Harrap (1956).
7. The concerns expressed with regard to the role of space in society today and tomorrow generally have, as a background, an appreciation in one form or another of the complications, both political and social, which face us as a nation and as a world in the years ahead. While there is some difference of opinion as to the priority and intensity of these complications, there is apparently general agreement that they are of the sort described in such books as: Robert L. Heilbroner, The Future as History, Harper (1960); John Kenneth Galbraith, The Affluent Society, Houghton Mifflin (1958); and Walt Whitman Rostow, The United States in the World Arena, Harper (1960). Generally speaking, these complications arise from the growing demands in the years immediately ahead for enlargement of public services at home as well as in the world abroad. In addition, there is a feeling that the interests of the people at home as well as of those abroad will not be such as to find space central to their aspirations, preoccupation, or demands; all-out efforts in the space area may not be viewed sympathetically and therefore may not have the kind of support necessary for their realization, Abroad as well as here, the proper allocation of efforts for space activities are matters of concern. A New York Times article, March 21, 1959, p. 2 ("Two Scientists Question Value of Space and Missile Program"), quoted Dr. A. R. J. Crosch, then manager of space programs for the International Business Machine Corporation, as saying: "@e isn't any point in zooming off into outer space. We could spend the money better solving problems here at home -- taking care of our overcrowded, underfed millions. If we did that, we wouldn't need to find new worlds to colonize." Dr. Louis Ridenour, then Assistant General Manager of Research and Development in the Missile Systems Division of the Lockheed Aircraft Corporation, was quoted thus: "We turn in our cars before they are worn out and our nation would go broke if we didn't. Our missile program fits into the system very well, we send up missiles that never come back and so we have to make more missiles."
The London Economist, Vol. 195 (April 30, 1960), pp. 396-397, stated: “In one week, the 'important' industrial questions offered to the public may be whether Britain should cast away money with satellites into space, develop a Channel Tunnel that nobody suggests would pay as a private commercial enterprise, or go in with France to find the public money to develop a supersonic airliner. It is usual to answer this by saying that Britain is a very rich society now; that its citizens have now enough income to make investment in space circuses as sensible a choice as the purchase of motor cars which are nice to polish but too dangerous actually to drive on the roads; and that vast incidental benefits to civil industry flow irresistibly from these ventures that must always be pushed just beyond the extremes of dry-as-dust profitability. Is it? Are they? It is unnecessary to adduce the usual arguments about benefits that could be gained by applying such resources to medical research, or in assistance to underdeveloped countries. More selfishly: the houses outside which the parked cars spawn are a generally inconvenient, often smaller than one's grandfathers occupied, and aesthetically revolting," According to a Reuters' dispatch (New York Times, June 11, 1960), Pravda published a letter (entitled "Isn't- it too early to play with the moon?") from a citizen who wrote in part, "Damn the moon and serve up better food." See also Fred Hoyle, "The Case Against a British Space Programme,” The New Scientist, Vol. 8 (August 11, 1960), pp. 394-395, and "For and Against a British Space Programme," The New Scientist, Vol. 8 (August 18, 1960), pp. 446-448.
8. See, for example, Wallace R. Brode, "Development of a Science Policy," Science, Vol. 131 (Jan. 1, 1960), pp. 9-15. Consider also the following statement by George B. Kistiakowsky, speaking as moderator of the Harvard Law Schoolls outer Space Symposium, held in early 1960-. "I'd like to emphasize that I am not in outer space; I am firmly on the ground -- place down south; but even so I find myself completely unable to disassociate myself from being involved at least by implication in outer space. On two separate days I had two Nobel Prize winners come to my office. The first one of them said, 'George, you are selling basic science down the river in order to support outer space activities. It is shameful for a scientist to do so.' Three days later the other sat in the same chair and said, 'George, you are sabotaging our outer space program. You ought to be run out of Washington."' See Harvard Alumni Bulletin, Vol. 62 (May 7, 1960), p. 597.
"True strength and lasting prestige will come from the richness, variety, and depth of a nation's total program.... We should insist on a space program that is in balance with our other vital endeavors in science and technology and that does not rob them because they are currently less spectacular. In the long run we can weaken our science and technology and lower our international prestige by frantically indulging in unnecessary competition and prestige-motivated projects." See James R. Killian, Jr., "Making Science a Vital Force in Foreign Policy" (a paper delivered to the Dallas Council on World Affairs, Dallas, Texas, Sept. 23, 1960).
9. See Clyde and Florence R. Kluckhohn, "American Culture: Generalized Orientations and Class Patterns" (paper presented at the seventh meeting of the Conference on Science,'Philosophy, and Religion in Their Relation to the Democratic Way of Life, held at the international House of the University of Chicago on September 9, 10, and 11, 1946); published in Lyman Bryson, Louis Finkelstein, and Robert Morrison MacIver, eds., Conflicts of Power in Modern Culture, Harper (1947).
10. "There may be occasional limiting conditions under which mass communications may produce a unanimous effect. There are also times in which the 'deviant cases' may be so few as not to be of practical importance. The more important the issue, however, the less likely is the effect to approach unanimity, because of the public's stronger interest in and knowledge of the problem. Therefore, the present status of communication research indicates that any study of the impact of the mass media must be one of the demography of effect -- the relative distribution of effects throughout the population. The major job of charting the appropriate population parameters remains to be done." See Raymond A. Bauer and Alice H. Bauer, "American Society and the Mass Media of Communication" (to be published in the Journal of Social Issues early in 1961), P. II-9 of dittoed copy. Data indicating differential public responses to space activities can be found in: Donald N. Michael, "Man in Space: What SR's Readers Think About It," Saturday Review, Vol. 42 (April 4, 1959), pp. 60-63, and Donald N. Michael, "Sputniks and Public Opinion: The Myth of 'Impact," Air Force Magazine/Space Digest, Vol. 43 (June 1960), pp. 72-75; and in Raymond A. Bauer, "Executives Probe Space," Harvard Business Review, Vol. 38 (September-October 1960), pp. 6-15.
11. Detailed studies of congressional susceptibility to imposing values and attitudes on population groups are found in Lewis A. Dexter, "Congressmen and the People They Listen Tot' (dittoed), Communications Program D/56-18 Center for International Studies (1956), prepared for and available from 14N201, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
12. The following personal reactions to elements in the manipulation of the space program have been variously noted by the scientists and engineers involved, as seeming to them to contribute to the resentment and disillusion.
1. What they felt to be the disproportionate amount of publicity and spectacular promotion given to space activity efforts, "by self-seeking politicians or entrepreneurs who want to use space to advance their own interests." These interests are believed to have little to do with the professed interest in space exploration.
2. They felt that many of the statements made about the future of general space activities and specific space projects are based on ignorance -- sometimes willful -- of the facts, in particular, the ignorance of the tremendous difficulties involved in bringing even the simplest space activity to fruition.
3. They despaired -- given government funding methods -- of receiving the systematic long-range financial support necessary to bring to fruition within a reasonable time many of the projects which they feel can be accomplished, given such support.
4. They had sensed ambiguity in the relationship between NASA and the military services which seems to them to belie the "pious protests" of a civilian space program separate from the military program. The compromises and conflicts are seen as frustrating to both the military and the civilian effort.
5. The scientists in particular sensed pressure on them not to fail, whereas the traditional role of the scientist includes honorable failure in the quest for knowledge. Given the pressures of corporate profits, publicity, and national status, however, failure is not easily acceptable; moreover, exciting ideas ate sometimes not explored because
6. The disillusioned individuals usually admit that they are geared to respect a world which is based on their types of goals and their methods for reaching them, and that it is practically a professional tradition to dislike and distrust those whom they perceive as manipulating situations for the sake of expediency. [-95-]
13. "The individual is having a harder and harder time finding a place for himself in science; and, though this is rationalized as an inevitable development that comes with the growth of science and its practice by groups, many recognize that this emphasis on smooth working relationships in happy laboratories may be changing the notion of knowledge at any price to knowledge as it is convenient and comfortable for the scientist." See Bernice T. Biduson, "The Changing Self-Images of the Research Scientist" (paper presented at the American Psychological Association Meetings, September 1959, Cincinnati, Ohio).
14. "We do not yet understand the creativity of groups well enough to say that quantity (number of groups, amount Olf support, structured competition, i.e., all organizationally manipulated) cannot approximate the results of quality (individual talent plus professional motivation). Perhaps the space effort does lose something immediate if the 'best' people choose to pursue different interests, or even the same interests in a different way. While it is true that the disenchantment and cynicism of scientists may affect recruitment and creativity on an individual basis, this may not be true on an organizational level, and may have desirable consequences for the 'balance of power' relationships among elite groups in the society." (Correspondence with Dr. Herbert E. Krugrnan, Director of Market Research, Raymond Loewy Associates.)
15. For a related discussion see Chapter 6, section on the role of the science adviser. Also see Robert K. Merton, "Bureaucratic Structure and Personality," Social Theory and Social Structure, Free Press (1949), pp. 151160;
Harry C. TriAndis, "Differential Perception of Certain Jobs and People by Managers, Clerks, and Workers in Industry," Journal of Applied Psychology, Vol. 43 (August 1959), pp. 221-225.
16. Richard L. Meier and others have pointed out that all successful "large machine" science projects very quickly use up available local talent and require for their efficient operation national and, eventually, international participation both for research ideas and data analysis. In the past, this phenomenon has been observed in connection with atomic accelerators, computer facilities, radio telescopes, etc. It is speculated that the same situation will arise with space research, especially as the payload capacity increases into the thousands of pounds range.
17. Various factors that were suggested by members of the non-space science community as accounting for unfavorable or indifferent attitudes are listed below. The relative importance assigned to them varied.
1. Some dislike the flamboyant public relations and propaganda associated with space activities. (E.g., Dr. Joseph Kaplan, as quoted by Dick Turpin in "Space Probes Need Publicity," Los Angeles Times, March 7, 1960, has said: "As a scientist, I am chagrined to have to face the realization that propaganda is as important as it is today in world politics." See also James S. Hanrahan,” Negative Reactions to the Age of Space"--especially, pp. 4-7-- American Rocket Society publication 1191-60. And in the words of the present administrator of NASA:
"There seems to be a contest going on in this country in which substantial numbers of people are attempting to outdo each other in predicting exotic accomplishments in space in the next few years. In my opinion, there is need for more common sense and good technical judgment to be injected into this picture.” From an address by Dr. T. Keith Glennan to the 4th USAF-BMD Symposium on Missiles and Space Technology, Los Angeles, Aug. 24, 1959.)
2. Some dislike affiliation with the military -- and regardless of what may be said by NASA and the White House, they feel space is chiefly a military activity.
3. Many are committed to research funded through sources which would not permit a shift in their programs to relate them to space activities. Moreover, those with good and continuing support and those hoping to get such support from their present sponsors have no motivation to abandon their commitments.
4. Many for whose work space probes might be useful in one way or another prefer to depend instead on techniques more familiar to them. [- 97-]
5. Some have not lost the feeling that space activity is science fiction and therefore not a proper area of attention for a serious scientist with a serious research program.
6. Planning and launching a research package for a space probe usually takes a long time, perhaps years, and because of the small supply of rockets and the demand for them there is no assurance of when, if ever, it will get off the ground. Some scientists are not prepared to risk their careers in an activity with coordinating elements so far out of their control.
7. Some resent the amount of money expended on space activities, a fraction of which, they feel, would accomplish much more if it were put into their own earth-based activities.
8. Some feel that space activities should be planned in close coordination with pertinent earth-bound activities; until this is done they doubt that the first interest of space is truly science.
9. Some are repelled by the big business-big money approach. While generally they know that some scientific activities do require large amounts of money, the promotional efforts that seem to be considered necessary to insure the money are incompatible with their image of science and the way research should be conducted.
10. Some resent what they believe to be willful confusion of science with engineering. They insist that rocket design and rocket launchings are engineering and that calling them science degrades science.
18. See Donald N. Michael, "Man-into-Space: A Tool and Program for Researching the Social Sciences," American Psychologist, Vol. 12 (June 1957), pp. 324-328.
19. Raymond A. Bauer, "Executives Probe Space," Harvard Business Review, Vol. 38 (September-October 1960), pp. 6-15.
20. "When the last big discussion of postwar aid to Britain was being argued in Congress, most of the organizational mail was for it, and most of the individual letters were against it. It is possible to organize every kind of voluntary group back of something as a group -and still have a large number of individual dissidents who generate important undercurrents. We need studies comparing what people say -when approached as individuals -- and what they say as members of organized groups.'.' (Correspondence with Margaret mead, American Museum of Natural History.)
21. "For an adult to know that other adults are all talking About and reading about space is not the same as for the child to know this. He sees adults taking it seriously (regardless of what they say about it). When we listened to Buck Rogers we believed it was the 25th Century and it had no expectancy value. Today it's real, but what is real for the adults who say so may be quite different for the child who perceives it that way truly." (Correspondence with Dr. Herbert Krugman.)
22. For interview techniques with children, see Eugene L. Hartley and Dorothy C. Krugman, "Note on Children's Social Role Perception," Journal of Psychology, Vol. 26 (October 1948), pp. 399-405, For learning theory applied to development of values, see Herbert E. Krugman and Eugene L. Hartley, "Studies in the Development of Consumer Tastes" (scheduled for publication in Public Opinion Quarterly in the spring of 1961).
23. "Here in a ten year project, or less, we will see the most cogent indicators of value (political, social, etc., consequences of space activities -- and we will see them in process. We need only a handful of schools for collection of longitudinal data, and the Purdue Young People's Opinion Poll (high school and college opinions) for our national cross-checks." (Correspondence with Dr. Herbert Krugman.)
24. The following discussions illustrate these points; Donald N. Michael, "Sputniks and Public Opinion: The Myth of 'Impact," Air Force Magazine/Space Digest, Vol. 43 (June 1960), pp. 72-75; Stephen B. Withey, "Sputnik ... Some Consequences, Expectations, and Attitudes," Survey Research Center, University of Michigan (mimeographed; January 1958);
Stephen B. Withey, J. M. McLeod, and J. Swinehart, "Satellites, Science and the Public: A Report of a National Survey on the Public impact of Early Satellite Launchings," Survey Research Center, University of Michigan (February 1959); Stephen B. Withey, "Public Opinion about Science and Scientists," Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 23 (Autumn 1959), pp. 382-388; and R. C. Davis and Stephen B. Withey, The Public Impact of Science in the Mass Media, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan (1958).
25. A parallel and revealing situation may be found in the disorganized nature of early information and attitudes about nuclear energy. See E. Douvan, A. Walker, B. Darsky, and Stephen B. Withey, The Impact of Atomic Energy on Society, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan (1953), and B. Fisher, C. Metzner, and B. Darsky, Public Response to Peacetime Uses of Atomic Energy, Vols. 1 and 2, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan (1951). For a discussion of the difficulty of separating military and peaceful uses, see E. Douvan and Stephen B. Withey, "Some Attitudinal Consequences of Atomic Energy," Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 290 (November 1053), P. 108.
26. "... despite many years of discussion and many pages of writing, the various roles of the press are not clear. There seem to be at least two major influences which characterize the activity of the press. First, the press perhaps more than any other agency, helps to create as well as reflect the environment in which daily interaction...occurs. Second, while the situation is obvious with respect to totalitarian countries, in which the press is government controlled, it seems highly likely that in other societies the press has also emerged as an actual adjunct to official policy making structures and processes." Richard C. Snyder and James A. Robinson, National and International Decision Making (to be published by the Institute for International Order, New York City, early in 1961), P. 110 of prepublication draft. See also Ithiel de Sola Pool and Irwin Shulman, "Newsmen's Fantasies, Audiences, and Newswriting," Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 23 (Summer 1959), pp. 145-158; and Wilbur L. Schramm, ad., One Day in The World's Press: Fourteen Great Newspapers on a Day of Crisis, November 2, 1956, Stanford University Press (1959).
27. "The number of specific findings are so great that the reader is likely to assume that they are of great help in assessing the impact of the mass media on American society. Actually their value is, at present, quite limited for this purpose... Communications research has done much to help us identify the relevant parameters of the problem, but the crucial job of giving values to these parameters is yet to be done.'' See Raymond A. Bauer and Alice H. Bauer, "American Society and the Mass Media ofCommunication," (to be published in the Journal of Social Issues in early 1961), P. ii-5 of dittoed copy.
28. Some anticipated space projects will in effect involve building a large ship on end at the launching site. The contemplated Nova rocket, for example, would stand about as tall as the Washington monument and probably cost upwards of a billion dollars. Our economy has had no peacetime experience with this kind of "one-shot" activity. Normally in peacetime we finance either many relatively cheap, and therefore disposable, items or an expensive item -- such as an ocean liner -- which can be used over and over again. A really big rocket represents a new type of investment, since in the nature of rocket technology the first shot may fail. Thus there is the not unlikely specter of several years of publicized effort and several billion dollars blowing up when only 100 yards off the pad. Can a society used to traditional modes of investment revise its values so that such a spectacular and expensive "test" would not produce strong pressures to forego further investments of the sort?
29. Daniel Lerner, Professor of Communications Research at MIT, and his associates found some interesting differences recently in sophisticated European publics regarding expectations about the future importance of space activities. In a general way, those people who foresaw intensive and, perhaps, disastrous competition between East and West, also foresaw space as an important activity in the future. Those people who foresaw a lessening of tensions and the need for greater cooperation, also foresaw a lessening role for space. See also R. C. Davis and Stephen B. Withey, The Public Impact of Science in the Mass Media, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan (1958); and A. W. Bendig, "Factor Analytic Dimensions of Attitudes Toward Man-into-Space," Psychological Newsletter (New York University), Vol. 10 (January-February 1959), pp. 123-130.
30. For example, an excellent summary of opposition to changes in transportation is found in Wilfred Owen, The Community Objects (a report prepared for the Air Force Association, 1954). [-101-]
31. It is significant, perhaps, that among those people today who would be spoken of as having broad horizons, there is questioning regarding the appropriate allocation of resources to meet these many challenges on the horizon. For example, 11 ... certainly there are scientific problems of overwhelming importance that can be solved for a small fraction of a single Atlas or Titan fizzle. Is it possible that, in the long run, we'll be better off relative to the Russians to channel expenditures into other fields? ... and what about cancer research, studies in geriatrics, urban redevelopment -- even aid to India?" (From a speech by Robert J. Low, Executive Officer, High Altitude Observatory of the University of Colorado, entitled "International and Economic Aspects of the Space Age," delivered to the National Conference on Aviation Education at the Air Force Academy, Denver, March 25, 1960.)
And Dr. George B. Kistiakowsky, in a speech entitled "A Decade of Progress," delivered to the National Science Foundation, May 12th, 1960, said: "Nor need we look beyond our own shores to view unreached horizons of science. Our hospitals are overcrowded with men, women, and children emotionally unfit to move among their fellow men. Killers and cripplers of men such as cancer, arthritis, heart disease, muscular dystrophy, all await the day when science will marshal still greater forces
against them. Rich deposits of minerals and food await extraction from the sea, while the sea awaits desalination in quantities large enough to open new lands to mankind. The atom awaits fusion, photosynthesis to be harnessed, new galaxies to be discovered. Science itself awaits the day when it will be reunited with music, art, and literature into harmonious culture to move together, toward the achievement of excellence in our lives."
See also a review by John Rader Platt (Department of Physics, University of Chicago) of Basic Research in the Navy (a report to the Secretary of the Navy by the Naval Research Advisory Committee), Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 16 (June 1960), P. 221, which reads in part, "What we need... is a 100-fold redirection of money and competent research scientists into other long-neglected areas of basic research and invention. Areas where 100-fold may mean 100 scientists, to balance a little bit the hordes already working on space and fusion. Areas related to transportation, housing, textiles, contraceptives, Operations Analyses of local government mechanisms, and so on; where high technology sees no dividend and has not even a toehold. Survival is also, like technology, a many-factor problem; and for optimum success, it also needs a distribution of research effort among all the factors, not just the well-advertised military and industrial factors."
32. See Robert K. Merton, "The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy," Social Theory and Social Structure, Free Press (1949), pp. 179-195.
33. See, for example, the many speculations on project Ozma. One such "Project Ozma Begins Operation at National Radio Astronomy Observatory," National Science Foundation Press Release NSF-60-120, April 12, 1960.
34. The positions of the major American religious denominations, the Christian sects, and the Eastern religions on the matter of extraterrestrial life need elucidation. Consider the following:
"The Fundamentalist (and anti-science) sects are growing apace around the world and, as missionary enterprises, may have schools and a good deal of literature attached to them. One of the important things is that, where they are active, they appeal to the illiterate and semiliterate (including, as missions, the preachers as well as the congregation) and can pile up a very influential following in terms of numbers. For them, the discovery of other life -- rather than any other space product -- would be electrifying. Since the main ones among these sects are broadly international in their scope and are, in some places, a news source, the principal distributors of mass media materials, an important source of value interpretation, a central social institution, an educational institution, and so on, some scattered studies need to be made both in their home centers and churches and their missions, in relation to attitudes about space activities and extraterrestrial life. additionally, because of the international effects of space activities and, in the event of its happening, of the discovery of extraterrestrial life, even though space activities are not internationalized, it is very important to take account of other major religions. So, for example, Buddhist priests are heavily politically engaged in Ceylon. So, too, in Burma, many politically active men (including U Nu) are professedly active Buddhists. The Burmese convoked the Sixth Great Buddhist Council which brought together a huge international group of Buddhist lay and ecclesiastical leaders and it seems likely that -- at least in the case of Theravada Buddhism -- with the wide participation of modern-educated, politically active men, Buddhist beliefs and principles are being reinterpreted. We need, and we do not have, good observations or interpretive statements about the possible repercussions of space activities, etc., for these Buddhists." (Correspoidence with Dr. Rhoda Metraux. The observations are based on field work with the Montserrat Anthropological Expedition, 1953-55., field work in Haiti, and examination of sectarian literature.) [-103-]
If plant life or some subhuman intelligence were found on Mars or Venus, for example, there is on the face of it no good reason to suppose these discoveries, after the original novelty had been exploited to the fullest and worn off, would result in substantial changes in perspectives or philosophy in large parts of the American public, at least any more than, let us say, did the discovery of the coelacanth or the panda. It might well be that this sort of discovery would simply not be sufficiently salient for most people most of the time to cause any noticeable shift in philosophy or perspective. If super intelligence is discovered, the results become quite unpredictable. it is possible that if the intelligence of these creatures were sufficiently superior to ours, they would choose to 'nave little if any contact with us.
On the face of it, there is no reason to believe that we might learn a great deal from them, especially if their physiology and psychology were substantially different fro)ii ours, It has been speculated that, of all groups, scientists and engineers might be the most devastated by the discovery of relatively superior creatures, since these professions are most clearly associated with the mastery of nature, rather than with the understanding and expression of man. Advanced understanding of nature might vitiate all our theories at the very least, if not also require a culture and perhaps a brain inaccessible to earth scientists. Nature belongs to all creatures, but manes aspirations, motives, history, attitudes, etc., are presumably the proper study of man. It would also depend, of course, on how their intelligence )ere expressed,, it does not necessarily follow that they would excel technologically. It is perhaps interesting to note that when asked what the consequences of the discovery of superior life would be, an audience of Saturday Review readership chose, for the most part, not to answer the question at all, in spite of their detailed answers to many other speculative questions. Perhaps the idea is so foreign that even this readership was bemused by it. But one can speculate, too, that the idea of intellectually superior creatures may be anxiety-provoking. Nor is it clear what would be the reactions to creatures of approximately equal and communicable intelligence to ours. [-104-]
What may perhaps present a particularly knotty philosophical problem, and one which would seem most clearly to have the potentials of profound repercussions for our values and attitudes and philosophies, could arise if we discovered a creature whose intelligence and behavior, by our standards, was indeterminate to the point that we were unable to decide whether or not it should be treated morally and ethically as if it were "a human being." Certainly, this could provide a continuing subject of controversy across and within various earth cultures; some people who had not otherwise speculated on these matters might gain a sense of the complexity of the universe. , For a convincing presentation of this idea, see Vercours, You Shall Know Them, Pocket Books (1955). On this general problem see Daniel C. Raible, "Rational Life in Outer Space?" America, Vol. 103 (Aug. 13, 1960), pp. 532-535;,Wolfgang D. Miller, "Religion in Space," Man Among the Stars, Criterion Books (1957) pp. 221-240; and "Oxnam Sees Space Conquest in 175 Years," Washington Star, Jan. 4, 1960.
35. Professor Jiri Nehnevajsa and Albert S. Francis of Columbia University, in April-June 1960, surveyed samples of about 100 legislators and 100 university students in both Brazil and Finland. The respondents were asked to indicate which of a series of circumstances they foresaw as changed by a series of developments, including some in space. (in what follows the figures are given in the following order: (1) Brazilian legislators and (2) students; (3) Finnish legislators and (4) students.) The discovery of civilized alien life was foreseen as increasing the chances for East-West reconciliation by 15, 11, 5, and 6 per cent of the respondents, and as increasing the chances of a third political force by 6, 6, 11, and 20 per cent of the respondents. Increased status quo and increased likelihood of disarmament accounted for most of the remaining scattered responses, being, respectively, 2, 5, 21, and 21 per cent, and 5, 7, 6, and 5 per cent. The remaining types of situations facing the world were seen as essentially unaffected by this event. (See Chapter 8, Note 58, for other details of this survey and for complete citation.)
36. A possible but not completely satisfactory means for making the possibility "real" for many people would be to confront them with present speculations about the I.Q. of the porpoise and to encourage them to expand on the implications of this situation. Unfortunately the semantics of "animal," at least for Americans, is such that even a human level I.Q. would not be as threatening as a "being" which wasn't an earth animal.
37. Such studies would include historical reactions to hoaxes, psychic manifestations, unidentified flying objects, etc. Hadley Cantril's study, Invasion from Mars (Princeton University Press, 1940), would provide a useful if limited guide in this area. Fruitful understanding might be gained from a comparative study of factors affecting the responses of primitive societies to exposure to technologically advanced societies, Some thrived, some endured, and some died.
38. A series of articles on the astronauts began in the Sept. 14, 1959,issue of Life magazine.
39. See, for example, "Astronaut Plan Termed 'Stunt.' Bush Says Project Has Little Value -- Sees 'Confusion' in the Missile Program," New York Times, April 7, 1960; and "DuBridge Blasts 'Space Idiots'; Calls for Down-to-Earth Stories About Problems," Los Angeles Times, May 1, 1960, in which Lee DuBridge was quoted as saying also, "I believe even the Mercury Program, in spite of all the nauseating journalistic publicity about the astronauts, has now been converted into a needed research program." See also the editorial, "Don't Rush the Astronauts," Washington Post and Times Herald, Nov. 24, 1960.
40. Women want men to stay at home now probably more than they have at any period in history. They need them more, They need them to look after the children and help build the house and do all sorts of things that they didn't use to need husbands for. They used to have other female relatives and neighbors to help, or not so many children. But now, they need husbands at home, and there is a tremendous objection to men going anywhere. Part of the feeling about space, which spreads right through the country, is women's objection to men's going there." See Margaret Mead, "The Newest Battle of the Sexes," Air Force Magazine/Space Digest, Vol. 43 (July 1960), P. 78. [-106-]
41. Eric Larabee interprets the popularity of the "Western" and the "Private Eye" on TV as due to unconscious effort on the part of the viewer to bring the jungle back to the city; that is, to present man with the unexpected that he must confront and use his wits and his body to overcome. To the extent that space may provide a surrogate or vicarious frontier for people, it may be attractive in this sense too.
42. See Donald N. Michael, "Social Studies Must Go On to Find Out How To Keep Space Crews Content," Missiles and Rockets, Vol. 3 (April 1958), pp. 110-114; and Jiri Nehnevajsa, "Man in Space Means Men in Space: Some Consequences," American Rocket Society Reprint 969-959 (Nov. 17, 1959).
43. For a recent popular summary of this situation see Walter Sullivan, "Satellite Shows Wide Ray Threat," New York Times, Nov. 27, 1960, p.l. At the present stage of knowledge, the effects of any one of most of the factors believed to be of major significance to man's biological and psychological survival in space can be estimated for an exposure period of not more than thirty days. There is no adequate knowledge of the combined effects of these factors for any period of exposure. See "Life Sciences for Space Use," Aviation Week, Vol. 73 (Nov. 7, 1960), p. 67.