Bioterrorism Facts: Q&A
July 26, 1997
How real is domestic bioterrorism?
"This scenario of a nuclear, biological or chemical
weapon in the hands of a terrorist cell or rogue nation is not only
plausible, it’s really quite real." - Defense Secretary William Cohen
[1]
"Approximately 17 countries (including five implicated
as sponsors of international terrorism) may have active research and
development programs for biologic weapons." [3]
"FBI Director Louis Freeh...said several Middle East
terrorist organizations have U.S cells, ’which could be used to
support terrorist activity here.’" [1]
"Federal officials estimate that a small plane properly
equipped could disperse enough anthrax to kill millions of people in a
large metropolitan area. The invisible, odorless agent would not
likely be detected until people began dying, hours later. By then, it
would probably be too late to save those people infected but still
living." [1]
"’Biological terrorism provides paramilitary groups and
terrorists a means to make their point and do it very dramatically,’
[Army Brig. Gen. John] Doesberg says." [1]
"Recent incidents have infused the issue with a sense of
urgency. They include the sarin subway attack in Tokyo, Iraq’s
development of biological weapons discovered following the Persian
Gulf War, and other less publicized incidents of rogue chemists tied
to right-wing paramilitary groups obtaining biological agents." [1]
"While Iraq did in fact have a biological capability --
they have produced anthrax and botulinim (10,000 times more potent
than sarin) and were capable of disseminating them from the air --
weather and battlefield conditions (the coalition forces maintained
control of the air) rendered the weapons militarily ineffective. ’If
everything had worked out just right for [the Iraqis] they could have
created mass casualities.’" [1]
"The Russians have just enormous capability...In 1979
U.S. intelligence officials grew suspicious of Soviet intentions when
dozens perhaps hundreds of people mysteriously died in
Sverdlovsk...Their fears were confirmed in 1992, when Russian
President Boris Yeltsin acknowledged the Soviets had
continued their [biological weapons] program on a large scale... The
deaths were in fact caused by the inadvertent release of anthrax...the
wind carried the anthrax spores 40 kilometers, killing dozens of
people and livestock..."’While the break up of the Soviet Union eased
the threat of conventional warfare, it has only exacerbated the threat
of biological terrrorism,’ Franz says. ’We’re concerned about what
happened to all those scientists. They had enormous facilities and
thousands of people working on these issues. And they’re broke now.’
... There is a fear that some of these scientists may sell their
skills and expertise to rogue nations and sponsors of terrorism." [1]
According to a Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC) study, "The economic impact of a bioterrorist attack
can range ... to $26.2 billion per 100,000 persons exposed (anthrax
scenario). [Cost = (number of deaths x present value of expected
future earnings) + (number of days of hospitalization x cost of
hospitalization) + (number of outpatient visits x cost of outpatient
visits)].... [The attack] would cause high rates of
illness and death. In the absence of an intervention program for the
100,000 persons exposed, the B. anthracis cloud would result in 50,000
cases of inhalation anthrax, with 32,875 deaths....A prophylaxis
program must be instituted within 72 hours of exposure to prevent the
maximum number of deaths.... In our analyses we did not include a
number of other factors [long-term human illness, animal illnesses,
decontamination and disposal of biohazardous waste, disruptions in
commerce (local, national,
and international), postattack prophylaxis distribution costs,
including crowd control and security, adverse drug reactions,
training, and procurement and storage of drugs and vaccines before
attack...and include several assumptions: First, stockpiles of drugs,
vaccines, and other medical supplies would be available and could be
rapidly moved to points of need. Second, civil, military, and other
organizations would be in place and have the capability to rapidly
identify the agent, dispense drugs, treat patients, and keep order
with the population. Finally ongoing intelligence gathering would
detect possible bioterrorist threats." [2]
Comment: this CDC scenario with its simplistic cost
model and completely unrealistic assumptions is a naive and misleading
academic exercise. Military and civil organizations do not currently
have these capabilities and intelligence gathering has proven to be
incompetent (witness the federal government’s admission that it had no
prior knowledge of Aum Shinrikyo [4]). It fails to address the
limitations of hospital facilities and drug supplies in multi-city and
>100,000 exposure scenarios, the low probability of detecting an
attack until it’s too late to treat (after symptoms start), the
breakdown of services and the huge losses from a simultaneous attack
on electrical power and other infrastructure elements, the massive and
catastrophic national and international economic damage resulting from
an attack on cities with critical assets such as the New York Stock
Exchange, the current total lack of trained and equipped
emergency personnel, and the astronomical costs of abandoning
anthrax-contaminated cities forever. Extrapolating linearly (a highly
conservative assumption because it ignores the total breakdown of
emergency services and the resulting megadeaths) and assuming 2
million persons exposed in the 27 largest cities would yield total
U.S. losses of over $14 trillion dollars, plus tens of trillions more
resulting from the loss of these cities and their businesses, and the
local, national and international financial and utilities
infrastructure and resulting global
impacts. Most importantly, it ignores the value of human life itself.
It’s obvious that CDC is in massive denial, along with the rest of the
country. - WT
What is the government doing about it?
"Under the [$42.6 million] Domestic Preparedness
Program, the Defense Department will take the lead in evaluating and
training officials [and emergency personnel] in the 120 largest U.S.
cities, beginning with 27 cities this year." The 27 cities are:
"Anchorage, Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Columbus, Dallas,
Denver, Detroit, Honolulu, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Kansas
City, Los Angeles, Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee, New York, Philadelphia,
Phoenix, San Antonio, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle,
Washington." [1]
Comment: these are not cities targeted for terrorist
attack, as previously misstated, but designated by DoD for training. -
WT
"The FBI has tripled the bureau’s counterterrorism force
of the last three years, raising to 2000 the number of FBI personnel
dedicated to the effort." [1]
"The Pentagon is establishing a Chem-Bio Quick Response
Force, which includes CBIRF [Marine Corps Chemical/Biological Incident
Response Force], several Army research and tactical units, and the
military’s chemical depots."
"The...Pentagon...planners recommended $1 billion in new
funding for defense against chemical and biological weapons." [1]
References
1. Peters K. Deadly Strike: The Pentagon takes aim
against chemical and biological terrorism. Government Executive, July
1997
2. Kaufmann, A et al., "The Economic Impact of a
Bioterrorist Attack, Emerging Infectious Diseases. Vol. 3, No. 2,
April-June 1997
3.Cole LA. The specter of biological weapons. Scientific
American 1996;275:60-5
4. H. Allen Holmes, Assistant Secretary of Defense;
Phillip Wilcox, Counterterrorism Coordinator, State Dept. in
congressional hearing, "Federal Response to Domestic Terrorism," House
National Security Subcommittee, Nov. 1995
by Wes Thomas - west@sonic.net