The impetus for the
confidential talks was that both sides agreed that Putin
had no objection to an agreement that sets the borders as they
existed when peace negotiations concluded.
Russia would retain
full control of Crimea, as well as the four provinces or oblasts
that Russia annexed last year,
...under martial law
until elections in March.
Surprisingly, Russia,
and especially Putin himself, signaled no objections to
Ukraine's possible NATO membership.
In a Nov. 1 interview with the Economist, Valery
Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army,
surprised editors by admitting that the conflict with Russia was
"at a deadlock."
Valery Zaluzhny
Getting out of this
situation would require a major technological breakthrough.
The general said that
since Ukraine's highly publicized counteroffensive against
Russia began in early summer last year, his troops had only
advanced less than eleven miles.
Zaluzhny explained:
"There will most
likely not be a spectacular breakthrough.
The simple fact
is that we can see what the enemy is doing and they can see
what we are doing.
To get out of
this deadlock we need something new, comparable to the
invention of gunpowder that the Chinese made and with which
we still fight each other."
The interview made
headlines around the world - it's news when the general leading
a war declares that the war is at an impasse - and of course it
enraged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and the
general publicly apologized for his comments.
But Zelensky still runs the country, and Europe knows that
Russia and Ukraine are now in serious peace talks.
Zelensky rejects such
talks and has said he will seek re-election on a platform that
calls for Russia's full withdrawal from Ukraine before peace
talks can resume. The country is currently under martial law,
meaning no elections can take place.
Zelensky continues to
mobilize troops for the Ukrainian army, and people between the
ages of seventeen and seventy have reportedly been drafted
again.
There must be a history when a commanding general tells a
prominent magazine that his army and the Russian army are in a
stalemate. And here it is, as told to me by two Americans who
are familiar with the matter.
The interview with The Economist came about without the
knowledge of the magazine's editors after a series of
general-to-general conversations with Valery Gerasimov, who has
been chief of the Russian Armed Forces' General Staff since
2012.
He is also the first
deputy defense minister of Russia.
Gerasimov was
particularly close to US Army General Martin Dempsey, who
served as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under President
Barack Obama from 2011 to 2015.
Dempsey and Gerasimov
had met at social events many years earlier, when both were
captains and commanded various tank units in West and East
Germany.
An American officer involved early in the discussions between
the two generals told me:
"This was not a
spontaneous event. It was carefully staged by Zaluzhny."
The message was:
The war is over,
we want out. A continuation of the war would destroy the
next generation of Ukrainian citizens.
The official
acknowledged that there was "no question" that Zaluzhny,
"was supported by
some important Americans in his decision to go public."
"What was the purpose of this amazing story?" the officer
asked.
"To get the
Ukrainian leadership" - meaning Zelensky and those around
him - "to agree to an agreement and to recognize that the
continuation of the war is self-destructive."
He named the "bigger
goal" of getting the Ukrainian population,
"to the point
bring to the point where it agrees to negotiations to end
the war."
On the Russian side,
the official said, Gerasimov,
"also recognized
that from a military perspective the war in Ukraine was a
destructive stalemate."
The Russian general,
"eventually
convinced Putin that there was no victory to be won."
The Russian losses
were disproportionately high.
"But how should
you convince Zelenski?
He is a madman
who risked his life for political and military victory. He
is an obstacle to agreement and he has many allies in the
Ukrainian military."
So the message to
Zelensky is:
We will talk to
the Russians, with you or without you, from military to
military.
Your neighbors,
especially Poland and Hungary, have had enough of you and
want their Ukrainian refugees to return to a peaceful
country.
The other problem
Zelensky faces is economic:
"How can you
govern a country without a gross national product?"
The deal now on the
table, the official said, allows Russia to support Ukraine so it
can finally join NATO.
Crimea would remain
in Russian hands, and freely monitored Russian presidential
elections would take place in the four partially occupied
oblasts that Russia claims.
Two weeks ago, Putin
signed a law allowing elections in these provinces to be held
under martial law.
"The White House
is absolutely opposed to the proposed agreement," the
official said.
"But it will
happen. Putin did not object."
It is assumed that
Putin,
"wants to
conclude an agreement."
Many details of the
proposed agreement still need to be worked on, the official
said.
He presented a
chilling list:
"War criminals on
both sides. Citizenship. Compensation. Explosive ordnance
clearance. Cross-border economy. Access and, above all,
political cover-up."
Neither side wants to
accept the accusation of "selling out" and is striving for an
honorable peace.
Getting the
toothpaste back in the tube won't be easy, but it's the most
important thing to do to prevent a flare-up. We have all winter
to solve this problem and some good people to help us.
The official reported a recent encouraging sign.
Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov recently requested an invitation
to the NATO International Security Conference, which took place
this week in Montenegro.
"He received the
invitation and accepted it," the official said.
"The United
States was informed of this but did not veto it."
A second American,
whose information came from overseas, confirmed that Russia
might be willing to "allow Ukraine to join NATO," but added an
important caveat.
Under the provisional
agreement, NATO would have to commit,
"not to station
NATO troops on Ukrainian soil."
The agreement also
would not allow NATO to station offensive weapons in Ukraine,
but defensive weapon systems would be allowed.
The American added that if the proposed peace talks were
successful, Russia would be ready to rejoin the Comprehensive
Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty from which it recently withdrew.
Russia would also
agree to withdraw its troops from areas near the Baltic states
and Moldova.
He told me that the proposed solution has an inherent logic that
flows from the military realities on the ground.
Russia, like Ukraine,
was unable to launch deep attacks beyond the current war front.
"They tried, but
they failed. No matter how inefficient and wasteful its
military may be, Russia can hold the conquered territories
in eastern Ukraine.
And we are
heading into the winter months when mud and snow make any
progress impossible."
The two generals may
continue to talk, and Putin may actually be interested in a deal
that would give him permanent control of Crimea and the four
provinces he claims, but Zelensky remains the wild card.
The American official
said Zelensky had been told that,
"this is an issue
that needs to be resolved on a military-by-military basis,
and the talks will continue with or without you."
If necessary, the
American official said,
"we can finance
his trip to the Caribbean."
